Cut Line Predictions and problem solving

By Rex HoggardJanuary 8, 2011, 1:55 am

It’s tough, if not impossible, to dig too deep for winners and losers this week. Seventy-two holes without a cut in paradise with a limited field and only the Kona trades to contend with. Life is good.

Instead, “Cut Line” will take the long view with some predictions and unsolicited problem solving.

Made Cut

International incident. For the first time since 1998, the International Presidents Cup team will hoist the big gold trophy and remain perfect in the Southern Hemisphere.

Much like Paul Azinger at Valhalla, team captain Greg Norman will inspire his crew at Royal Melbourne, site of the International side’s only victory in the biennial match (the teams tied in South Africa in 2003).

As an aside, Tiger Woods and Steve Stricker will lose a match but just one, dropping the super tandem to a pedestrian 7-1 in Presidents Cup team play.

A big one for Westie. Enough of the comparisons to Colin Montgomerie and questions about his health, Lee Westwood will win his maiden major at Royal St. George’s in July.

The Englishman is one of the fittest players in the game and his Open Championship record is rather clear on this. In his last two starts in the game’s oldest member-member he’s finished T-3 (2009) and runner-up (2010). And, contrary to popular opinion, he didn’t assume the top spot in the world ranking by default or accident.

In a groove. Not a single player will be asked about the new conforming grooves in irons, and no one will care.

The golf ball, however, will continue to be blamed for out-of-control distance gains, and no one will listen.


Made Cut-Did Not Finish (MDF)

Hype and hyperbole. The next big thing will be all at once introduced and anointed by a media far too quick to hand out greatness.

Greatness is achieved over time and measured in victories, particularly at major championships. Nothing else. But in the rush to fill the void left by Tiger Woods last year the media machine labeled Rickie Fowler, an infinitely talented player with an unlimited future if given the space to develop naturally, the “Man.”

Pop quiz: Fowler, Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar adorn the cover of this year’s Tour media guide. When was the last time a non-Tour winner made it on the cover? Answer: Never.

Mathematical madness. At last year’s Tour Championship, as computers struggled to digest the dizzying array of FedEx Cup possibilities, a curious contender emerged from the fray.

Paul Casey, who’d stormed to the first-round lead at East Lake, could, at least mathematically, claim the cup and the $10 million lottery ticket if he won the finale and got some help from the likes of Furyk and Kuchar. Never mind that the Englishman was winless on Tour in 2010.

There were no changes to the FedEx formula for 2011. “I think it's in a good place,” commissioner Tim Finchem said last month, which means a Casey-like scenario could be revisited in September. And the BCS thinks they have problems.


Missed Cut

Conflicted events. Observers will be incensed and tournament directors speechless when a handful of high-profile members are granted conflicting-event releases opposite a Tour event wanting for marquee players.

In fact, expect this scenario sooner rather than later. Phil Mickelson said he will start his 2011 campaign at the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi Championship the same week as this month’s Bob Hope Classic, one of a handful of events on Tour still searching for a title sponsor.

Major meltdown. No, not on a scorecard, we’re talking about an actual meltdown and it will be at this year’s PGA Championship at Atlanta Athletic Club in August.

Daytime highs the second week of August last year in the Atlanta area were around 104 degrees. That’s spontaneous combustion time for some, just ask England’s Anthony Wall who walked off midway through a round at sweltering Southern Hills in Tulsa, Okla., during the 2007 PGA Championship.

“I’ve never quit anything in my life, but I can’t go on,” an exhausted Wall said at the time.

More rulings, more eye rolling. Although it may not reach the fevered pitch of Dustin Johnson’s gaffe at the PGA, but sometime in 2011 a player will run afoul the Rules of Golf in a high-profile incident and . . . oh, wait.

Hate to go revisionist but it took Camilo Villegas exactly 15 holes to get on the ruling board this season. What’s baffling to “Cut Line” is that some bristle because Villegas was called out by a viewer who saw the violation on the Golf Channel telecast.

Golf is a game of honor, where competitors routinely call fouls on themselves and it doesn’t matter if a violation is reported by a rules official, caddie, fellow competitor or Jimmy Lunchbox on the couch back in Michigan – it’s a violation.

Consider it golf’s version of instant replay. And for those who claim the “call in” scenario only impacts those players shown on TV, consider the alternative – don’t play well enough to earn a spot on the telecast or, better yet, learn the Rules of Golf.

Tweet of the week: @ArronOberholser “I know why I don’t like viewers calling in. I don’t like a chop on a couch inferring that I don’t know the rules to a game I’m an expert at.”

With all respect to AO, who does know the rules and is a breath of straightforward fresh air on an all-to-vanilla Tour, if Villegas knew the rules he would be playing the second round at Kapalua, not volleyball on a beach in Hawaii.

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Watch: Tiger 'drops mic' in long drive contest

By Golf Channel DigitalMay 20, 2018, 12:44 am

Tiger Woods is in Las Vegas this weekend for the 20th annual Tiger Jam charity event that benefits his foundation.

During the tournament on Saturday afternoon, Woods challenged World Long Drive competitor Troy Mullins to a long drive contest.

 

A post shared by TROY MULLINS (@trojangoddess) on May 19, 2018 at 1:25pm PDT

Safe to say it looks like Tiger won.

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Sunday showdown for Wise, Leishman at Nelson

By Will GrayMay 19, 2018, 11:40 pm

DALLAS – While the swirling Texas winds may still have their say, the AT&T Byron Nelson is shaping up to be a two-horse race.

With a four-shot gulf between them and their closest pursuers, co-leaders Marc Leishman and Aaron Wise both stepped up to the microphone and insisted the tournament was far from over. That it wouldn’t revert to a match-play situation, even though the two men didn’t face much pressure from the pack down the stretch of the third round and have clearly distanced themselves as the best in the field through 54 holes.

But outside of an outlier scenario or a rogue tornado sweeping across Trinity Forest Golf Club, one of the two will leave with trophy in hand tomorrow night.

That’s in part because of their stellar play to this point, but it’s also a byproduct of the tournament’s new and unconventional layout: at Trinity Forest, big numbers are hard to find.

Even with the winds picking up during the third round and providing the sternest challenge yet, the field combined for only 16 scores of double bogey, and nothing worse than that.


Full-field scores from the AT&T Byron Nelson

AT&T Byron Nelson: Articles, photos and videos


There’s irony in a course called Trinity Forest offering a tree-less test, sure, but there are also no water hazards in play here. For the most part, players have been maxing out with bogey – and Leishman and Wise have combined for only six of those so far this week.

If someone from the chase pack is going to catch them, the two sharing the pole position aren’t going to do them any favors.

“I don’t really want to give them a chance,” Leishman said. “I’d love to go out and shoot a low one and make Aaron have to shoot a good score tomorrow to beat me, which, I fully expect him to shoot a good score.”

While Leishman has been somewhat of a late bloomer on the PGA Tour, with only one win across his first eight seasons, he now has a golden opportunity to add a third trophy in the last 14 months. He has felt right at home on a sprawling layout that reminds him of a few back in his native Australia, and he’s part of a Down Under invasion on a leaderboard that also includes Matt Jones (-13) and Adam Scott (-9).

While Wise briefly held sole possession of the lead, Leishman has seemingly held an iron grip on the top spot since opening his week with a blistering 61.

“Before last year, I was a pretty slow starter. I always got off to a slow start Thursday, or I’d be fighting to make the cut and have a good weekend to slide into the top 10,” Leishman said. “Getting into that round straight away on the first tee rather than the ninth green or something, which sounds like a really basic thing, but it’s something I didn’t do very well until last year.”

But as Leishman acknowledged, he likely can’t count on a stumble from Wise to help finish off a wire-to-wire victory. As the youngest player to make the cut this week, Wise is facing a challenge of taking down a top-ranked Aussie for the second time in as many starts.

While he came up short at the Wells Fargo Championship, tying for second behind Jason Day, he remains supremely confident that he can put those hard-earned lessons to use this time around.

“I feel like it’s a great opportunity,” Wise said. “It will obviously be a huge day for me. I feel like having one go at it already, I’m a little more confident going into it this time.”

Even among the landscape of the Tour’s promising next wave, Wise stands out as a particularly young gun. Still only 21, he could feasibly be heading to Karsten Creek next week with his Oregon Duck teammates to close out his senior season with another NCAA championship appearance.

But Wise turned pro after winning the NCAA individual title as a sophomore, and he steadily worked his way through the professional ranks: first a win on the Mackenzie Tour in Canada, then one last summer on the Web.com Tour.

Now he’s poised to turn what he described as a “lackluster” season before his Quail Hollow runner-up into one that defies even his own expectations.

“Absolutely, I am way ahead of the curve. It’s pretty hard to do what I’ve done at such a young age. Only a few have done it,” Wise said. “I feel like I’m getting some great experience for a kid this young. It’s only going to serve me well down the road.”

An unpredictable Coore-Crenshaw layout will have one more day to star, and outside of Wise the top six names on the leaderboard have at least one Tour win to their credit. But after the two men traded punches on a firm and fast afternoon, it sure feels like the final round is shaping up to offer more of the same.

For Leishman, it’s a chance to add another notch to some quickly expanding credentials; for Wise, it’s an opportunity to win on the one level he has yet to do so.

“It’s golf, at the end of the day. If you play better than everyone else, you’re going to win,” Wise said. “That’s why I play it. That’s why I love this sport, and tomorrow is nothing different.”

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5 thoughts from NCAA Women's Championship Day 2

By Ryan LavnerMay 19, 2018, 11:35 pm

The field is almost halfway through stroke-play qualifying at the NCAA Women’s Championship. Here are some thoughts on the first two days at Karsten Creek:

1. UCLA is on a mission. Just a year ago, the Bruins were headed home from regionals after becoming the first No. 1 seed that failed to advance out of the qualifying tournament. This year, with the core of the team still mostly intact, the Bruins have opened up a five-shot lead on top-ranked Alabama and a comfortable 16-shot cushion over Southern Cal in third place. On one of the most difficult college courses in the country, UCLA has received contributions from all four of its usual counters – standout Lilia Vu shot 68 on Saturday, while Mariel Galdiano posted a 69. Freshman Patty Tavatanakit and junior Bethany Wu also broke par. This is a strong, deep lineup that will pose issues for teams not just in stroke-play qualifying, but also the head-to-head, match-play bracket.

2. What happened to Arkansas? Riding high off their first SEC Championship and a dominant regional performance, the Razorbacks were considered one of the top threats to win the national title. But entering Sunday’s third round of stroke play, they need to hold it together just to ensure they make the top-15 cut. Arkansas is 32 over par through two rounds. The Razorbacks had shot in the 300s just once this season in the play-five, count-four format. Here at Karsten Creek, they’ve now done so in consecutive rounds.


NCAA Women’s DI Championship: Team scoring

NCAA Women’s DI Championship: Individual scoring


3. The Player of the Year race is heating up. With a decent showing at nationals, Arkansas’ Maria Fassi should have been able to wrap up the Annika Award, given annually to the top player in the country. She has six individual titles, plays a difficult schedule and is well-liked among her peers. But through two rounds she’s a whopping 15 over par while spraying it all over the map. If the Razorbacks don’t survive the 54-hole cut, neither will Fassi. That’d open the door for another player to steal the votes, whether it’s UCLA’s Vu or Wake Forest’s Jennifer Kupcho. There’s a lot still to be decided.

4. Stanford has steadied itself. One of the biggest surprises on Day 1 was the horrendous start by the Cardinal, one of just two teams to advance to match play each of the three years it’s been used to determine a national champion. They were 19 over for their first nine holes Friday, but instead of a blowup round that cost them a shot at the title, they’ve found a way to hang tough. Stanford has been just 4 over par over its last 27 holes. Andrea Lee made only one bogey during her second-round 69, Albane Valenzuela eagled the 18th hole for a 73 and senior leader Shannon Aubert – who has been a part of each postseason push – carded a 74. And so, even with its early struggles, coach Anne Walker once again has Stanford in position to reach match play.

5. Karsten Creek is identifying the best teams. The top teams in the country want a difficult host venue for NCAAs – it helps separate the field and draws an unmistakable line between the contenders and pretenders. Only one team (UCLA) is under par after 36 holes. Fewer than a dozen players are under par individually. The dearth of low scores might not be the greatest advertisement for how talented these players are, but the cream has still risen to the top so far: Five top-10 teams currently sit inside the top 7 on the leaderboard (and that doesn’t even include last year’s NCAA runner-up Northwestern). This is all any coach wants, even if the scores aren’t pretty.

Quick hits: Cheyenne Knight, part of Alabama’s vaunted 1-2-3 punch along with Lauren Stephenson and Kristen Gillman, shot rounds of 70-69 to figure in the mix for individual honors. The junior will turn pro after nationals. …  Arizona’s Bianca Pagdanganan made a hole-in-one on the 11th hole Saturday en route to a 68 that tied the low round of the day. She’s at 5-under 139, same as Knight. ... Defending champion Arizona State, which lost star Linnea Strom to the pro ranks at the halfway point of the season, is 35 over par after two rounds. … Play was delayed for nearly an hour and a half Saturday because of inclement weather.

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Wise (21) makes Leishman (34) feel a little old

By Will GrayMay 19, 2018, 10:55 pm

DALLAS – With the final round of the AT&T Byron Nelson likely to take on a match-play feel, Marc Leishman likes his chances to close out another win – even if his opponent makes him feel a little old.

Leishman, 34, shares the lead at Trinity Forest Golf Club with 21-year-old Aaron Wise, who was the youngest player to make the cut at the tournament’s new venue. The two men will start the final round at 17 under, four shots clear of their next-closest pursuers.

Leishman played the third round alongside Wise and Brian Gay, and he originally didn’t realize just how fresh-faced his fellow co-leader is.


Full-field scores from the AT&T Byron Nelson

AT&T Byron Nelson: Articles, photos and videos


“He’s a solid player for, I heard this morning he’s only 21. I didn’t realize that,” Leishman said. “I guess I was in high school before he was born, so that’s – I don’t know. You hear guys talk about that all the time but I’ve never said that, I think. Yeah, he’s a good player.”

Wise won the 2016 NCAA individual title while at Oregon, and he opted to turn pro after his sophomore season. While he could have been capping his senior season with a return to the NCAAs next week, Wise is pleased with the career choice and remains eager for a chance to close out his first career PGA Tour win against a seasoned veteran.

“I feel like I’m in a great spot for tomorrow,” Wise said. “I feel like I’m getting some great experience for a kid this young. It’s only going to serve me well down the road.”