Woods' struggles cause oddsmakers to scramble

By Will GrayFebruary 4, 2015, 12:30 am

As Tiger Woods chunked and skulled his way to a missed cut last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, there was a large sense of disbelief. There were questions left unanswered, and there was uncertainty about what next to expect.

For one man, though, there was work to do.

Jeff Sherman is the assistant manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and a one-man band when it comes to setting and adjusting weekly betting odds for golf tournaments. As Woods misfired on chip after chip, Sherman knew that he would have to adjust his odds for the Farmers Insurance Open.

But how, and by how much? Setting prices on golfers to win PGA Tour events is a soft science, but even more so when it comes to the most popular player in the game.

“He’s the one guy that’s the most tricky because over the years, no matter how poorly he’s playing, people back him,” said Sherman, who has been creating golf odds at Westgate since 2004. “I could put him at 20/1 and if his name didn’t say ‘Tiger Woods,’ he could have been listed at 80/1. But you just get that type of action on him.”

Sherman had listed Woods at 20/1 to win last week in Phoenix, and he knew that number would be going up significantly for this week’s event. His usual process starts by surveying the field list upon its release the Friday prior to gauge its overall strength. From there, he’ll factor in a player’s current form and his past history at a given venue.

Track records don’t get much better than Woods’ profile at Torrey Pines, where he has seven Farmers titles in addition to his 2008 U.S. Open win. His short-game struggles were so troubling, though, that Sherman basically had to ignore his past success while assigning odds of 50/1.

“Obviously he’s going to a course he’s had tremendous history on, but you have to find a certain weight between history and current form,” he told GolfChannel.com on Tuesday. “The current form is throwing his history out the window this week.”


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Sherman’s goal in setting odds is not to offer a prediction on the event, but simply to generate a balanced level of wagers. The key for him is finding a number that will attract bettors, but not one that will create a significant liability for the house should the player win.

“We’re pushing to get the action, but the problem is if I was less or much less (than 50/1 on Woods), I don’t think I’d get many bets at all based on what everyone saw,” he said. “I’m just trying to find the number to get the action.”

To understand the new depths reached this week, it helps to remember the heights once achieved by Woods – even from a betting standpoint. The last four times he has played this event, his highest pre-tournament odds with Sherman were 7/1 in 2013. He went on to win that event by four shots.

Back in 2008, he was listed at even money (1/1) to win the Farmers, which he did. After winning each of his first three starts to begin the year, he then played Doral as a massive 10/13 favorite, meaning bettors had to lay $13 to win $10.

Even at the 2010 Masters, when Woods was making his return from a scandal and surrounded by more questions than answers, he still had lower odds than any other player in the field at 11/2. Just last year, he was listed as a 2/1 favorite at Torrey Pines.

“The crazy thing was that I opened the odds at 5/2 and I took a large wager on him to drive the odds down to 2/1,” Sherman recalled.

But now, with his swing still a work in progress and his short game nowhere to be seen, Woods opened at 50/1. It’s the highest number Sherman has ever assigned to the 14-time major winner, surpassing his 30/1 pre-tournament odds at last year’s PGA Championship.

Sherman’s focus also extends beyond this week’s event along the California coast. He posted full-field odds to win the Masters back in August, listing Woods at 12/1 behind only Rory McIlroy (5/1). This weekend’s result caused him to make his first adjustment to Woods’ odds for Augusta, dropping him to 20/1 alongside Phil Mickelson and behind Bubba Watson, Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth at 15/1.

“With it being that far out and with him having the ability to get some tournament golf under his belt before it happens, you just can’t be overly aggressive,” he said. “He has that extra time to be able to prep and get his form up, so you make the adjustment but you just don’t make too large of an adjustment this far out.”

As expected, Woods’ lofty price has drawn attention from the Las Vegas betting community. Sherman released his Farmers odds on Monday, and less than 24 hours later Woods had surpassed Mickelson as the player with the most wagers. Sherman is confident that trend will continue into Wednesday, when his sports book receives an estimated 80 percent of its golf wagers, and that Woods will ultimately lead the ticket count this week.

While Sherman had kept his odds on Woods steady at 50/1 despite an early influx of wagers, he moved them to 40/1 by Tuesday evening. Some offshore outlets were even quicker to adjust their prices; BetOnline.ag opened Woods at 50/1 to win on Monday and was offering him at 33/1 Tuesday, while Sportsbook.ag and Bovada.lv had both trimmed Woods to 30/1.

Dave Mason, a manager at BetOnline.ag, noted that their potential liability on Woods is 20 times higher than that of their next biggest exposure, Dustin Johnson.

"Although public action has decreased on Tiger the last couple of years, he is by far our biggest exposure this weekend due to the very long odds," Mason said.

Sherman doesn’t foresee the odds on Woods getting much higher than their current level when he makes his next start, which is expected to be the Honda Classic later this month.

“If he makes an improvement and just barely misses the cut, you’ll probably see a decrease in his odds. People will think he’ll be able to gain more next time,” he said. “For an increase to happen, he’s going to have to finish a couple spots higher or right about where he finished (last week) for things to really go up much more.”

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Tiger: Back was an issue in 2012 Ryder loss at Medinah

By Rex HoggardSeptember 19, 2018, 2:39 pm

ATLANTA – On Tuesday at East Lake, Tiger Woods played a nine-hole practice round with Bryson DeChambeau, adding to the notion that the two could end up partnering at next week’s Ryder Cup.

Of course, he also played with Tony Finau. And - let’s face it - there are no shortage of potential teammates for Woods in the U.S. team room.

But DeChambeau does seem to have his interest.

“I've gotten to know Bryson very well, and what an amazing talent, and an unbelievable hard worker,” Woods said. “He has figured out a way to play this game his own way, and he's very efficient at what he does, and he's not afraid to think outside the box on how he can become better.”

After missing the last two matches because of injury, finding the right partner is a good problem to have.


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Being one of Jim Furyk’s four captain’s picks is particularly rewarding for Woods, who endured one of his toughest losses in the matches in his last start in 2012, when the U.S. team took a four-point lead into Sunday singles but lost, 14 1/2 to 13 1/2.

The ’12 matches were where Woods' back prompted him to request a late tee time Sunday, rendering his anchor match with Francesco Molinari ultimately irrelevant once Europe retained at least a share of the cup. Woods eventually conceded the 18th hole to Molinari, ending their match in a halve and allowing Europe to win outright. 

“I wasn't feeling physically well at that Ryder Cup, and it's where my back started bugging me,” Woods said. “That's the only wave I've ever missed was [that] Saturday afternoon wave, because I told [U.S. captain Davis Love III] I just really couldn't go. And I said, 'Can you put me out later on Sunday? Because I need the time to get my back organized here.'

“It was tough watching them celebrate in the 18th fairway when I thought we should have won that one."

Woods actually missed the morning foursomes session on Day 2 in at Medinah. It marked the first time in his Ryder Cup career he didn’t play all four team sessions. He finished with a 0-3-1 record for the week.

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Stenson fires back at Mickelson on gun range

By Will GraySeptember 19, 2018, 1:24 pm

The first shots of the Ryder Cup may be ringing off a target at a gun range near you.

After Phil Mickelson tweeted his long-range sniper shot, extolling the virtues of focus and measured breathing as he prepares to take on Le Golf National next week, one of Europe's top players picked up a weapon to return fire.

Henrik Stenson was added as a captain's pick earlier this month, and he'll make his fifth Ryder Cup appearance in France. But before heading across the Atlantic he had some fun on Twitter, grabbing a gun and tweeting a video back to Mickelson while taking aim at a target 50 yards away:

Ever the Twitter savant, Mickelson saw the message and came back with a reply of his own, noting that he couldn't hear Stenson's shot hit the target like Mickelson's did from much longer range in the original video:

This is your reminder that the first (golf) shots of the Ryder Cup will be struck in just nine days.

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Watch: Dechambeau simulates dew on East Lake range

By Grill Room TeamSeptember 18, 2018, 11:02 pm

Bryson DeChambeau has certainly lived up to his nickname of "Mad Scientist" since joining the PGA Tour, using his eccentric style to win four events, including the first two tournaments of this year's FedExCup Playoffs.

And he's staying on brand at the season-ending Tour Championship, where he enters as the favorite to capture the FedExCup title.

The 24-year-old was spotted on the East Lake range Tuesday, preparing for potential morning dew on the golf ball this week - by having a member of his team spray each golf ball between practice shots:

While this type of preparation might come off as a little excessive to the average golfer, it's rather mild for DeChambeau, considering that in the last two weeks alone he has discussed undergoing muscle activation tests and measuring his brain waves.

DeChambeau goes off with Justin Rose on Thursday at 2 p.m. He could finish as low as T-29 and still have a mathematical chance of winning the season-long FedExCup.

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Fewer goals but more consistency for Thomas in 2018

By Rex HoggardSeptember 18, 2018, 9:35 pm

ATLANTA – After winning last year’s FedExCup, Justin Thomas was asked about his goals for the season and he quickly went to his phone.

A list of 13 “goals” had been typed in, a rundown that ranged from qualifying for the Tour Championship to finishing in the top 10 in half of the circuit’s statistical categories. Nearly every goal had a “Y” next to it to denote he’d accomplished what he wanted.

Thomas was asked on Tuesday at East Lake how his goals are shaping up this season.

“I haven't looked in a while. I really haven't. I'm sure if I had to guess, I'm probably around 50 to 60, 70 percent [have been completed],” he said. “I definitely haven't achieved near as many as I did the previous year. But we still have one week left to knock a big goal off.”


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Thomas pointed out that although he didn’t add to his major total this season or win as many times as he did last year, he still feels like he’s been more consistent this year.

He has more top-25 finishes (19) than he did last year (14), missed fewer cuts (two compared to six last season) and has improved in nearly every major statistical category.

“It's been a really consistent year, and I take a lot of pride in that,” Thomas said. “That's a big goal of mine is to improve every year and get better every year, so if I can continue in this direction, I feel like I can do some pretty great things the rest of my career.”