The 105th PGA Championship begins Thursday at Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, New York. The GolfChannel.com writers weigh in with their predictions:
Who wins the 105th PGA?
RYAN LAVNER: Scottie Scheffler. It’s difficult to separate Scheffler and Rahm this week; they’re very similar players, consistent and unrelenting, with loads of major experience already. But we’re giving the slight nod here to Scheffler because 1) he’s the game’s top ball-striker at the moment, and 2) his scrambling skills are a separator if it becomes clear that many players are missing the firm, narrow fairways, à la Winged Foot in 2020.
REX HOGGARD: Scottie Scheffler. Some combination of Scheffler and Jon Rahm is the easiest – and safest – answer. But the most recent tiebreaker goes to the world No. 2, who opened with back-to-back rounds of 64 at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson and appears to have put the putting woes that cost him at Augusta National in the past.
BRENTLEY ROMINE: Jon Rahm. The major dominance continues as Rahm is built for Oak Hill. Then again, what course isn’t Rahm built for? The guy doesn’t have very many poor weeks anymore, and it seems as if Rory, Spieth and JT have garnered much of the spotlight early in the week, letting Rahm prepare to yet again do his thing.
Who will be the low LIV finisher?
LAVNER: Brooks Koepka. No matter the tournament, no matter the tour, big, bad Brooks has flashed some stellar form over the past two months. Past the injuries that have plagued him, he displayed his usual brand of calculated, punishing play at the Masters, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue at a setup that has some distinct U.S. Open characteristics. If he’s not among your top-5 pre-tournament favorites, you’re doing it wrong.
HOGGARD: Dustin Johnson. The Masters proved that the LIV players are still competitively relevant despite the limited fields and 54-hole tournaments. Based on his recent performance at the breakaway circuit’s tournament last week in Tulsa, Oklahoma, DJ is an easy choice for low LIV player.
ROMINE: Brooks Koepka. Got a big taste of Major Brooks again at the Masters. He’s hungry – and capable – of doing it around this big ballpark.
Player outside the top 20 to contend?
LAVNER: Adam Scott. There’s still some life in the old(er) dog, with the Aussie posting consecutive top-10 finishes to fly into the PGA in some of his best form in years. Historically, at least, Scott has fared well in the year’s second major, with its emphasis on good driving and strong approach play. With his putting no longer the glaring weakness it was a handful of years ago, it’s time for Scott to once again contend in a major.
HOGGARD: Rickie Fowler. Everything you need to know about Oak Hill can be gleaned from its last champion – Jason Dufner at the 2013 PGA Championship. In his prime, Dufner was never going to be confused for Rory McIlroy off the tee or Jordan Spieth around the greens but from the fairway with an iron in his hands, he was a robot. Fowler ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach the green this season and with top-20 finishes in eight of his last nine starts, he’s trending in the right direction.
ROMINE: Si Woo Kim. I could technically go with the other Kim, Tom, here, and many will. But I’ll take Si Woo, the No. 36 player in the world, to do what he does best, which is pretty much everything but putting – and even that is nearly inside the top 100 this season in terms of strokes gained.
Biggest disappointment?
LAVNER: Rory McIlroy. A player of his caliber is never far away, but McIlroy doesn’t look or sound like a player who’s ready to nab his first major in nearly a decade. In his words and body language, at least, the deflation of his Masters letdown appears to be lingering five weeks later, and the shoddy ball-striking he showed at Quail Hollow – where he battled a two-way miss and was outside the top 50 in strokes gained: tee to green – remains a work in progress. The “hometown event” bump is also overplayed; it’s not like he’s logged hundreds of rounds at Oak Hill. Maybe he’s just downplaying his own expectations, but it feels like the wait for major No. 5 will continue.
HOGGARD: Rory McIlroy. Perhaps after the rough ride he’s been on the last month it would be hard to be disappointed with any performance, but the Northern Irishman is still the world’s third-ranked player and has historically excelled on tough courses like Oak Hill. Given his body language this week, however, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario that includes McIlroy in the mix late on Sunday.
ROMINE: Cam Smith. In seven career PGA Championship starts, he doesn’t have a top-10 finish. Now, will he miss the cut? No, but considering he’s coming off a runner-up and three straight top-10s on LIV since his T-34 at Augusta National, expectations are high for Smith. Doubt he breaks his trend of not contending at PGA.
Winning score?
LAVNER: 8 under. Winds for at least two rounds could gust up to 25 mph, keeping things in check at a place that features dense rough and dicey runoff areas. There also aren’t that many easy scoring opportunities, with beefy par 3s, a handful of par 4s over 500 yards and both par 5s checking in at 600-plus. It’s all these guys can handle. Jason Dufner won at 10 under par, when the PGA was last held here in August 2013. Can’t see the strongest field in golf reaching that point again.
HOGGARD: 8 under. The trend in recent years is for the PGA Championship to be the more user-friendly version of the four majors but Oak Hill appears to be an exception to that rule. By early estimates the redesigned layout is more demanding off the tee than it was in 2013, the fairways firm and fast and the rough juicier than many expected in Upstate New York this time of year.
ROMINE: Let me start by saying that I have no clue, but considering the conditions – from the rough to the cool temperatures – the winner should be closer to last year’s 5-under total than Jason Dufner’s 10 under when he won at Oak Hill back in 2013.