You Oughta Know: Odds against Stenson in Boston


Henrik Stenson and Rickie Fowler are set up for a Labor Day duel at TPC Boston. Here’s what You Oughta Know heading into the final round of the Deutsche Bank Championship, where Stenson leads by one.

• Despite his talent and previous success at this tournament, the odds are not in Stenson’s favor. Eight players have entered the final round this PGA Tour season with a one-shot lead and all eight have failed to win. Stenson himself entered the final round at Bay Hill in March with a one-shot lead before finishing runner-up to Matt Every. Moreover, each of the last five Deutsche winners, including Stenson in 2013, have been at least two shots back through 54 holes.

• The good news is that Stenson seems to have a thing for the end of the year. Each of his five worldwide victories since 2010 have come in the month of September or later. The Swede has not won on the PGA Tour since taking home the Deutsche Bank, Tour Championship and FedEx Cup in 2013.

• Also working in his favor is the fact that he hasn’t made a bogey in his last 26 holes. Stenson leads the field this week in par-4 scoring (10 under) and strokes gained-tee to green.

• With a victory Monday, Stenson would join Tiger Woods as the two only players to win the same playoff event multiple times. Woods won the BMW in 2007 and 2009. Vijay Singh won the Deutsche in 2004 and 2008, but that first win came before the start of the postseason in '07.

• Overshadowed this year by Jordan Spieth and Jason Day, Fowler is in search of his third PGA Tour win and third worldwide victory this season, following trophy lifts at The Players and Scottish Open.

• While Stenson has to shake recent history to cash in for victory, Fowler has won each of his previous two Tour titles coming from behind.

• One shy of Stenson, Fowler hasn’t made a bogey in his last 25 holes, which is especially impressive considering he hit just 4 of 14 fairways in Round 3. Fowler is tied for 91st on Tour this year in final-round scoring average (70.62).

Matt Jones, who led the PGA Championship last month through 36 holes, remains in search of his second Tour victory following his dramatic breakthrough last year in Houston. The Aussie needs a finish of solo third or better to qualify for this year’s Presidents Cup.

• Finally, despite missing the cut this week, Jordan Spieth will retake No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking so long as McIlroy (T-64) finishes outside the top 10 and Day (T-25) doesn’t win.