The vagaries of match play preclude the use of advanced metrics to determine winners in the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. Don’t believe me, then how do you explain Shane Lowry over Rory McIlroy and Charles Howell III over Tiger Woods in the first round in 2013. Besides, this isn’t the NCAA basketball tournament, where a No. 16 seed has never beaten a top seed. The best 64 teams don’t play in that tournament, but the best golfers are in the Arizona desert this week. Well, most of them anyway. So if McIlroy, the top seed in the Ben Hogan bracket, loses to Boo Weekley Wednesday, let’s refrain from calling it as big an upset as Florida Gulf Coast over anyone in basketball. With that in mind, here’s a look at each of the four brackets in the 2014 Accenture. (Click here for the full bracket and click here to play our Fantasy Challenge)
The Bobby Jones Bracket
| Best of the bunch |
Jason Day has best winning percentage in the bracket (8-3, .727 percent), and was third a |
| Wednesday worries |
| Henrik Stenson is 12-6 overall at the Match Play, but all that damage came early in his career. He hasn’t won his opening match since 2008. |
| Who has the hot hand? |
| No one, really. Of the five players who played the Northern Trust Open, none finished better than T-59 (David Lynn). |
| First-timer to watch |
| Patrick Reed and Graham DeLaet face each other on Day 1 and the winner gets either George Coetzee or the rested (but rusty) Steve Stricker Thursday. |
| Major players |
| If 2010 British Open winner Louis Oosthuizen and 2012 U.S. Open champ Webb Simpson win their first two matches, they’ll meet in Round 3. It will be a rematch of their singles match in the 2013 Presidents Cup, which they halved. |
| Trending poorly |
| Coetzee, who got into the field at the deadline by winning the Joburg Open, hasn’t won in the first round in his two previous Match Play appearances. |
| Haven’t we met before? |
| Simpson and Brandt Snedeker, who were 1-1 as teammates in the 2013 Presidents Cup, could meet in the second round if they beat Thongchai Jaidee and Lynn, respectively. |
The Ben Hogan Bracket
| Best of the bunch |
| Six players in this bracket have double-digit victories in the Match Play, led by Ian Poulter, whose 22 wins are the most in the field. Poulter has reached the semifinals three times and won it all in 2010. |
| Wednesday worries |
| Bill Haas is making his fourth appearance in the Accenture, and has never gotten out of the first round. |
| Who has the hot hand? |
| Who else but Jimmy Walker? The three-time winner in 2013-14 faces Branden Grace Wednesday and could meet Poulter, the match-play buzz saw, a day later. |
| First-timer to watch |
| Walker, not only because of his wins, but because of match-ups. While he plays Grace, the other rookies face daunting tasks. Harris English takes on Lee Westwood; Chris Kirk plays Jim Furyk; Marc Leishman plays Sergio Garcia; and Kevin Stadler plays Charl Schwartzel. |
| Major players |
| Schwartzel and Furyk could face each other in Round 2. The winner of that bout might see Rory McIlroy in Round 3. |
| Trending poorly |
| Rickie Fowler hasn’t won a match since losing to Matt Kuchar in the Sweet 16 in 2011. |
| Haven’t we met before? |
| If Ryder Cup teammates Westwood and McIlroy get past opening day, a rematch of their 2012 semifinal is on tap. McIlroy won that duel, 3 and 1. |
The Gary Player Bracket
| Best of the bunch |
| Matt Kuchar and Luke Donald, by far. Defending champ Kuchar has a 15-3 match record and was third in 2011. Donald is 17-8, and beat Kuchar, 6 and 5, in the semifinals on his way to the 2011 title. |
| Wednesday worries |
| Tournament rookie Bernd Wiesberger faces Kuchar; and Matteo Manassero plays Donald, who is 8-1 on opening day. |
| Who has the hot hand? |
| Scott Stallings (Farmers Insurance Open) and Stephen Gallacher are winners in 2014. Gallacher won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic for the second straight year. |
| First-timer to watch |
| Third-seed Jordan Spieth, who takes on another first-timer in Pablo Larrazabal on Day 1, is the headliner. A day-two match against the Francesco Molinari-Thomas Bjorn winner looms. |
| Major players |
| Defending U.S. Open champ Justin Rose is the top seed and takes on Scott Piercy. He could face four-time major champ Els in Round 2 and PGA winner Jason Dufner in Round 3 if things break properly. |
| Trending poorly |
| Something has to give in the Bjorn-Molinari match. Bjorn has only won once in the first round since 2005 and Molinari is 1-3 in opening-day matches. |
| Haven’t we met before? |
| Ryan Moore won three matches in 2012, losing to Luke Donald in the quarterfinals. They could meet there again in 2014. |
The Sam Snead Bracket
| Best of the bunch |
| Hunter Mahan’s 15-5 record includes an 11-1 mark over the last two years. He beat Rory McIlroy for the title in 2012 and lost to Matt Kuchar a year ago. |
| Wednesday worries |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano has the unenviable task of facing Mahan on Day 1. But he did win two matches a year ago and took Tiger Woods to the wire in the 2012 opener. |
| Who has the hot hand? |
| Northern Trust Open champ Bubba Watson, of course, and runner-up Dustin Johnson. They could meet in Round 3 in what could be the week’s most appealing match-up. |
| First-timer to watch |
It’d be tough for any rookie to get far in this Group of Death, but you can bet Martin Kaymer |
| Major players |
| Seven players in this bracket played in both the 2010 and 2012 Ryder Cup: Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson and Bubba Watson for the U.S and Peter Hanson, Martin Kaymer, Graeme McDowell and Francesco Molinari for Europe. |
| Trending poorly |
| Zach Johnson hasn’t advanced to Day 2 since 2010 and was pounded by Jason Day, 6 and 5, a year ago. |
| Haven’t we met before? |
| The most intriguing potential match-up involves McDowell and Mahan, who could revisit their 2010 Ryder Cup singles match if they both advance to the Sweet 16. McDowell won that one, 1 up, to clinch the Cup for Europe. |