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And the champion is...? Simulating the PGA Tour’s new match-play finale

Don’t want to wait until 2028 to experience the PGA Tour’s revamped Tour Championship?

Well, you don’t have to.

Using the final FedExCup standings after last week’s BMW Championship, I separated the top 32 players into their respective four-man groups to begin this hypothetical two-week Tour Championship. Then using a randomizer, I advanced the top two players in each group to bracket play, where I then flipped a coin – hey, it’s match play – to see who would win each match.

What was I left with?

Follow along below:

Group stage

GROUP A
1. Scottie Scheffler
16. Hideki Matsuyama
17. Ryan Gerard
32. J.T. Poston
Advancing: Scheffler, Matsuyama

GROUP B
2. Matt Fitzpatrick
15. Akshay Bhatia
18. Gary Woodland
31. Kurt Kitayama
Advancing: Fitzpatrick, Woodland

GROUP C
3. Wyndham Clark
14. Russell Henley
19. Patrick Cantlay
30. Ryan Fox
Advancing: Clark, Fox

GROUP D
4. Cameron Young
13. Jacob Bridgeman
20. Kristoffer Reitan
29. Tom Kim
Advancing: Kim, Young

GROUP E
5. Si Woo Kim
12. Xander Schauffele
21. Min Woo Lee
28. Adam Scott
Advancing: Lee, Kim

GROUP F
6. Chris Gotterup
11. Rory McIlroy
22. J.J. Spaun
27. Justin Rose
Advancing: McIlroy, Rose

GROUP G
7. Collin Morikawa
10. Ludvig Aberg
23. Alex Smalley
26. Viktor Hovland
Advancing: Aberg, Morikawa

GROUP H
8. Sam Burns
9. Tommy Fleetwood
24. Alex Fitzpatrick
25. Robert MacIntyre
Advancing: Fitzpatrick, MacIntyre

With reports that Sleepy Hollow is among the clubs being considered to host this new Tour Championship format, I’m selecting Cameron Young’s home club as the venue for Week 1.

Six of the top seeds survived, including the local favorite Young, though Gotterup and Burns weren’t so lucky. Fleetwood and Schauffele are the other top-12 seeds heading home after Week 1, though with eight of the top 12, including Scheffler and McIlroy, still alive, the PGA Tour and its partners are pleased heading into bracket play.

But will everyone get their dream championship matchup of Scheffler against McIlroy at ... Los Angeles Country Club?

While the PGA Tour hasn’t revealed how it will seed players, we’ll assume that players will be re-seeded based on how they were seeded entering the group stage. And if that’s the case, everyone is disappointed as Scheffler and McIlroy are projected to meet in the quarterfinals. At least there are some other great options.

Let’s see how this plays out:

BMW Championship 2026 - Round Three

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - AUGUST 22: Scottie Scheffler of the United States plays a shot on the seventh hole during the third round of the BMW Championship 2026 at Bellerive Country Club on August 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

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Bracket play

DAY 1

ROUND OF 16
Scheffler (1) def. Fox (16)
McIlroy (8) def. Matsuyama (9)
MacIntyre (13) def. Young (4)
A. Fitzpatrick (12) def. S.W. Kim (5)
Clark (3) def. Rose (14)
Lee (11) def. Morikawa (6)
T. Kim (15) def. M. Fitzpatrick (2)
Woodland (10) def. Aberg (7)

Yay, we get Scheffler versus McIlroy and Clark adds to his good fortune at LACC, but there were also five upsets out of the eight matches. No longer in the friendly confines of New York, Young falls to MacIntyre, who played a Walker Cup at LACC back in the day.

BMW Championship 2026 - Final Round

ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI - AUGUST 23: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland acknowledges the crowd after sinking a putt on the 9th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club on August 23, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by James Gilbert/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

PGA TOUR

DAY 2

QUARTERFINALS
McIlroy (8) def. Scheffler (1)
MacIntyre (13) def. A. Fitzpatrick (12)
Lee (11) def. Clark (3)
Woodland (10) def. T. Kim (15)

CONSOLATION MATCHES
Fox (16) def. Matsuyama (9)
S.W. Kim (5) def. Young (4)
Morikawa (6) def. Rose (14)
M. Fitzpatrick (2) def. Aberg (7)

In what we’d love to imagine was a 26-hole thriller won by McIlroy with a walk-off albatross at the par-5 eighth, McIlroy moves on over Scheffler, while three double-digit seeds remain in the mix.

Genesis Scottish Open 2026 - Day Two

NORTH BERWICK, SCOTLAND - JULY 10: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland and Robert MacIntyre of Scotland shake hands after finishing their round on the 18th green on day two of the Genesis Scottish Open 2026 at The Renaissance Club on July 10, 2026 in North Berwick, Scotland. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)

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DAY 3

SEMIFINALS
MacIntyre (13) def. McIlroy (8)
Woodland (10) def. Lee (11)

CONSOLATION MATCHES
Scheffler (1) def. A. Fitzpatrick (12)
Clark (3) def. T. Kim (15)
-
Fox (16) def. S.W. Kim (5)
Morikawa (6) def. M. Fitzpatrick (2)
-
Young (4) def. Matsuyama (9)
Aberg (7) def. Rose (14)

Down goes McIlroy! And that leaves MacIntyre set to face Woodland in the championship match, which based on seeding is the second-worst of the eight final-round matchups.

BMW Championship 2026 - Final Round

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - AUGUST 23: Gary Woodland of the United States acknowledges the crowd on the seventh green during the final round of the BMW Championship 2026 at Bellerive Country Club on August 23, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Getty Images

DAY 4

CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH
Woodland (10) def. MacIntyre (13)

THIRD PLACE
Lee (11) def. McIlroy (8)

FIFTH PLACE
Scheffler (1) def. Clark (3)

SEVENTH PLACE
A. Fitzpatrick (12) def. T. Kim (15)

NINTH PLACE
Morikawa (6) def. Fox (16)

11th PLACE
S.W. Kim (5) def. M. Fitzpatrick (2)

13th PLACE
Aberg (7) def. Young (4)

15th PLACE
Matsuyama (9) def. Rose (14)

What an incredible comeback story this is: Woodland takes the inaugural match-play title at the Tour Championship. Lee takes down McIlroy for third place while Scheffler beats Clark for fifth. Poor Rose goes 0-4 on the week as Matsuyama bests him for 15th place.

Final Tour Championship standings

1. Woodland (10)
2. MacIntyre (13)
3. Lee (11)
4. McIlroy (8)
5. Scheffler (1)
6. Clark (3)
7. A. Fitzpatrick (12)
8. T. Kim (15)
9. Morikawa (6)
10. Fox (16)
11. S.W. Kim (5)
12. M. Fitzpatrick (2)
13. Aberg (7)
14. Young (4)
15. Matsuyama (9)
16. Rose (14)