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Stat attack!: Quicken Loans National review

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Justin Rose is second on the PGA Tour in bounce-back percentage, but his comeback victory at the Quicken Loans National was his biggest bounce back of the year – even though he only followed a bogey or worse with a birdie or better one time last week.

Rose opened with a 74 at Congressional – including a front-nine 40. It was the worst first-round score for a winner this year and just the seventh time since 2000 that a player opened with a 74 or worse in a PGA Tour event and went on to win.

ScorePlayerTournamentTo par
75Mark Calcavecchia2007 Tampa+4
74Justin Rose2014 Quicken Loans+3
74Vijay Singh2004 Houston+2
74Stuart Appleby2005 T of C+1
74Phil Mickelson2005 BellSouth+2
74Tiger Woods2005 Masters+2
74Padraig Harrington2008 British Open+4

After the 3-over start, Rose shot 65 Friday and followed with rounds of 71-70 on the weekend to finish tied with Shawn Stefani at 4-under 280. Rose won on the first playoff hole after Stefani hit his approach into a greenside pond. Interestingly, Stefani also opened with a 74 last week, and six of the seven players who were in the top five began their week with over-par rounds.

Comeback kings: Quicken Loans leaders after round one

FinishPlayerFirst roundFinal scorePos. after day one
1Justin Rose74/+3280/-4T-83
2Shawn Stefani74/+3280/-4T-83
T-3Charley Hoffman72/+1281/-3T-43
T-3Ben Martin72/+1281/-3T-43
T-5Andres Romero70/-1282/-2T-16
T-5Brendan Steele74/+3282/-2T-83
T-5Brendon Todd72/+1282/-2T-43

Rose (and Stefani) trailed first-round leader Greg Chalmers by eight strokes after he opened the week with a five-under 66. This was the fourth time in the last three years that the winning score in relation to par was worse than that put up by the first-round leader. Rose has been involved in two of those occassions, with his win at the 2013 U.S. Open also meeting this requirement.

PGA Tour events where the winner’s score was worse than the first-round leader’s score: 2012-2014

TournamentFirst-round scoreWinner’s scoreChampion
2014 Quicken Loans-5-4Justin Rose
2013 British Open-5-3Phil Mickelson
2013 U.S. Open-3+1Justin Rose
2012 U.S. Open-3+1Webb Simpson

This was Rose’s first win since the U.S. Open and it came on another major venue, Congressional, host of the 2011 national championship won by Rory McIlroy. Rose missed the cut at that Open (again opening with a 74), and if his victory Sunday was somewhat of a surprise it’s because he hadn’t played Congo since that missed cut. He skipped the National the last two years even though he won the tournament in 2010 when it was held at Aronimink GC in Pennsylvania. Rose is one of six players who have won in 2013-14 despite skipping the tournament the previous two years. He is also one of seven active players who have won the same current PGA Tour event (not a major or a WGC) on two different courses.

PGA Tour winners in 2014 who didn’t play that event the previous two years

PlayerTournamentLast played
Justin RoseQuicken Loans2011
Adam ScottColonial2011
Webb SimpsonLas Vegas2010
Harris EnglishMayakobaNever
Chesson HadleyPuerto RicoNever
Patrick ReedWGC-CadillacNever

Active players who have won the same current PGA Tour event on two different courses*

PlayerTournamentFirst courseSecond course
Justin RoseQuicken Loans2010 Aronimink2014 Congressional
Tiger WoodsTournament of Champions1997 LaCosta2000 Kapalua
Vijay SinghShell Houston Open2002 TPC Woodlands2004-05 Redstone
Stuart ApplebyShell Houston Open1999 TPC Woodlands2006 Redstone
Jim FurykCanadian Open2006 Hamilton2007 Angus Glen
Vijay SinghBarclays93-95-06 Westchester2008 Ridgewood
Tiger WoodsTour Championship1999 Champions2007 East Lake

Rose becomes the second major champion from 2013 to win this season, following Adam Scott, who won the Crowne Plaza at Colonial.

How the 2013 major champions have fared in 2014

PlayerStartsCuts madeBestTop 10sPoints rankMoney rank
Adam
Scott
1010Won Colonial61313

Justin
Rose

1311Won Quicken Loans6129
Phil
Mickelson
1511T-11 FedEx, Wells Fargo08988
Jason
Dufner
1411Second Colonial44442

In his last seven starts, the South African-born Englishman has made six cuts and finished no worse than T-14. He has moved from 75th on the FedEx Cup standings to 12th, and from 57th on the money list to ninth.

Justin Rose on the PGA Tour since the Masters

TournamentFinishScoresEarnings
MastersT-1476-70-69-74—289$148,500
Zurich ClassicT-871-67-69-68—275197,200
Wells Fargo569-67-71-71—278276,000
PlayersT-467-71-71-69—278440,000
MemorialMC73-72—145
U.S. OpenT-1272-69-70-72—283156,679
Quicken LoansWon74-65-71-70—2801,170,000

But why shouldn’t Rose be playing his best golf of the season? It’s his time of year. He might have started his hot streak a bit earlier in 2014, but late spring/early summer is when Rose blooms. He had two previous June victories, at the Memorial in 2010 and the Open in 2013. His win at the 2010 National came on July 4. He’s also come close to winning several other times in this portion of the calendar with a runner-up at the 2008 Memorial, and a third in Hartford in 2005, both of which he was leading after three rounds. Here’s how Rose has fared at the PGA Tour events that currently end in June. He was won 26.5 percent of his career earnings at these tournaments.

Justin Rose in the PGA Tour events that currently end in June

TournamentStartsTop-10BestEarnings
Memorial105Won, 2010$2,198,620
St. Jude00 0
U.S. Open93Won, 2013$2,023,054
Travelers83Third, 2005$788,902
Quicken Loans52Won, 2010, 2014$2,511,620
Total3213Four wins$7,522,196

There is no truth to the rumor that Rose is petitioning Augusta National to have them switch the Masters to the week before the U.S. Open. But we wouldn’t blame him if he tried.