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Stat attack!: Valero Texas Open preview

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KAPALUA, HI - JANUARY 06: Martin Laird of Scotland tosses a ball on the 1st hole during the first round of the Hyundai Tournament of Champions at the Plantation course on January 6, 2012 in Kapalua, Hawaii. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

What a difference a course makes. Prior to the 2010 playing of the Valero Texas Open, the tournament moved from the LaCantera Resort to TPC San Antonio’s AT&T Oaks course. LaCantera was a haven for low scores. Tommy Armour set the PGA Tour’s 72-hole aggregate scoing record there with a 254 in 2003. TPC San Antonio has been anything but accommodating. The average winning score since 2010 is 276.75, more than 13 strokes higher than the 263 average at the par-70 LaCantera from 2006-2009. Martin Laird (pictured) won a year ago with a final-round 63 that tied the course record. From 2002 to 2009 there were 29 rounds of 62 or lower at LaCantera. TPC San Antonio ranked as the fifth hardest par-72 course on tour in 2013, after being the second toughest in 2011 and 2012. The fairways and greens have been among the hardest to hit each of the four years it has been used on Tour.

TPC San Antonio’s statistical ranking on Tour

YearScoringRankRank among par-72sAccuracy (rank)GIR (rank)
201372.7415556.34% (13)59.52% (7)
201273.994253.11 (9)55.26 (4)
201173.667251.65 (5)56.32 (4)
201072.3517955.02 (6)59.74 (7)

At 7,435 yards TPC San Antonio is so long that even the bombers have trouble keeping up. In the PGA Tour’s “Going for the Green” statistic – the number of times a players tries to reach the green in two on a par-5 or from the tee on a par-4 if it is a viable option – players made the attempt only 32 percent of the time. They were successful less than 12 percent of the time, the lowest figure on Tour in 2013. The course ranked second the previous three years. The par-5 holes were the hardest on Tour in 2011, second-hardest in 2012 and ranked fourth last year.

Going for the green at TPC San Antonio

YearGoing for the green (rank)Success rate (rank)Par-5 scoring (rank)
201332.49% (4)11.86 (1)4.88 (4)
201229.94 (2)11.49 (2)4.96 (2)
201136.45 (6)12.34 (2)4.94 (1)
201030.23 (4)12.65 (2)4.87 (3)

Laird, who beat Rory McIlroy by two strokes after making birdie on his last three holes, took more chances in 2013 than any other player in the field, trying for the green 60 percent of the time when it was a viable option. He only found the putting surface 8.33 percent of the time, which was actually lower than the field average, but the gambling paid off in the long run with the victory. Interestingly, in 2014, Laird’s success rate when trying for the green leads the Tour (33 for 63, 52.68 percent).

PGA Tour leaders in Going for the Green - Hit Green Percentage (*in the Valero field)

PlayerGoing for the Green Success Pct.SuccessesAttempts
*Martin Laird52.38%3363
*Charlie Beljan44.072659
*Danny Lee42.862149
Robert Garrigus39.083487
*Briny Baird38.641744

Laird, however, was not on his game at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Playing his first tournament since the birth of his son, Jack, earlier this month, Laird finished last among those who made the cut. Of those who finished in the top-10 at the API, only six are in the field at San Antonio.

Top finishers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the Valero field

PlayerAPI finishValero Texas Open history
Jason Kokrak4Two starts, T-15 in 2013
Erik ComptonT-5One start, WD in 2012
Ryo IshikawaT-8Making his tournament debut
Freddie JacobsonT-10Seven starts, Second in 2010, 3 top-10s
Sean O’HairT-10One start, T-58 in 2008
J.B. HolmesT-10Three starts, T-11 in 2011, T-13 in 2010

From that list, Freddie Jacobson stands out. In fact, the Swede has never missed the cut at the Valero, no matter where it’s been held, and has never finished worse than T-29.

Freddie Jacobson at the Valero Texas Open

YearFinishScores
2013T-1570-74-71-69—284
2012 T-1868-76-71-72—287
2011T-572-75-67-69—283
2010271-69-65-70—275
2009T-566-66-68-67—267
2007T-2166-65-71-69—271
2004T-2968-68-64-72—272

Despite his stellar numbers, few eyes will be on Jacobson this week. Phil Mickelson is making his first appearance at San Antonio since a T-47 in 1992. He’s one of several former major champions who are making a rare appearance at the Valero Texas Open

Major champions in the field with less than three Valero Texas Open starts

PlayerMajorsTexas Open startsLast appearance
Phil Mickelson51T-47 in 1992
Ernie Els41T-3 in 2010
Jim Furyk12T-3 in 2013
Retief Goosen21T-53 in 2013
Padraig Harrington31T-10 in 2013
Trevor Immelman10
Geoff Ogilvy12T-23 in 2011
Mike Weir12MC in 2011

What the Texas Open wouldn’t give to have had that group of players a few years ago. Mickelson and Els are looking at this week as key preparation for the Masters. Some of the others, notably Harrington, Immelman and Weir, are looking to get their game back on track.

One final thought: Once the event moved to TPC San Antonio, previous tournament experience became less important than it is at most events. Three of the last four winners - Adam Scott in 2010, Brendan Steele in 2011 and Ben Curtis in 2012 - were all playing the Texas Open for the first time. Laird was making his third appearance in 2013, but runner-up McIlroy was making his Valero debut. Among those making their first appearance this week are Puerto Rico Open winner Chesson Hadley and Ryo Ishikawa, who is 26th on Tour in the FedEx Cup standings.

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