CHARLOTTE, N.C. – After weaving his way through two weather delays to complete his third round at the Wells Fargo Championship – a 6-under 66 that moved him to within four shots of the lead – Paul Casey gazed at his cell phone and the evolving leaderboard.
“I think I’m too far back,” Casey reasoned.
For the Englishman, it wasn’t the number of strokes between himself and the lead. It was the number of players.
“If it was one guy and a whole chasing pack, you can reel that person in,” he said. “But when you’ve got that many players [bunched around the lead], it’s tough.”
When the third round finally ended under even more threatening skies, the lead was shared by three players – Max Homa, the 28-year-old journeyman from Burbank, Calif.; Joel Dahmen, a self-deprecating 31-year-old who lives in Scottsdale, Ariz.; and the resurgent Jason Dufner.
For Casey and those with visions of an out-of-the-pack victory, it wasn’t the front-runners’ total of 11 under par so much as it was the cast assembled right behind the leaders. Poised incrementally down the board was two-time winner Rory McIlroy (fifth), world No. 2 Justin Rose (sixth) and Pat Perez (fourth).
One guy might falter, maybe even two, but a collective meltdown simply isn’t realistic.
“It depends on how many guys are in front. If there’s one guy, then you can kind of make it up. If there’s three or four guys, it’s tougher because it’s very difficult for me to play really well again and then all of them not to play well,” said Sergio Garcia, who made Saturday’s biggest move with a 65 and was tied for ninth place, five shots off the pace.
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It will take an effort similar to what Garcia accomplished on Day 3 to make the final lap something approaching an open race, which leaves a relatively limited – and eclectic – collection of would-be champions starting with Homa and Dahmen, who are both vying for their first PGA Tour victories.
Homa is just two seasons removed from what would be considered as a low-water mark for any career when he made just two cuts in 17 starts in 2017. That performance seemed like a distant memory on Saturday when he opened a one-stroke lead with a birdie at the 10th hole.
Although he fell back to earth with bogeys at Nos. 11 and 18, he didn’t seem put off by his new status as a PGA Tour leader or the prospect of sleeping on a 54-hole lead.
“I felt comfortable today, it was weird. It’s fun, which is good. I think if you look at it kind of as something that’s difficult, it’s not quite as fun, but I enjoyed it,” said Homa, who finished with a 1-under 70. “If I’m comfortable today, I can’t see why I wouldn’t be comfortable tomorrow. I’ve just been asking to have an opportunity like this to just see where my nerves are.”
Sunday will also be new ground for Dahmen, whose best finish on Tour was a distant runner-up showing last year at the John Deere Classic. If his response to a stumbling start on Day 3 is any indication, the pressure that is sure to come in the final round may not be as daunting as one might imagine.
After starting the day just one shot off the lead, Dahmen began his freefall with a double bogey-6 at the third and added a bogey at the fifth.
“I actually got nervous after I made double. I thought I was going to be a lot more nervous in those opening holes and I wasn’t,” Dahmen said.
An eagle at the par-5 seventh hole settled his nerves and he played the rest of his round in 4 under to earn a spot in the penultimate group alongside Pat Perez, who, despite three Tour victories on his resume, would still be considered something of a surprise contender.
Perez returned to the Tour last week at the Zurich Classic after sustaining a grade-2 calf strain just before The Players Championship. After seven weeks of intense rehabilitation, the 43-year-old conceded he didn’t have very high expectations for this week.
“I won’t put any extra pressure on myself because I’m lucky to be playing again, I’m happy to be playing again,” said Perez, who moved into fourth place thanks to a third-round 66. “I’m trying to play that kind of fortunate role. I’m just excited to be back.”
While that foursome will begin the day with a built-in advantage, it won’t be hard to keep an eye on the day’s most likely challengers. McIlroy and Rose will be paired together in the third-to-last tee time, looming large like the clouds that hung low over Quail Hollow Club for most of the third round.
McIlroy continued his domination of the event with a third-round 68 that was best described as plodding, with four birdies and a bogey, while Rose, who is three shots off the lead, played a predictably stress-free round for a 68.
For both accomplished veterans, this is a question of patience.
“I probably just go back to The Players in March, I got off to two really bad starts on Saturday and Sunday. I just told myself, I’m right in the thick of the tournament and you have to stay patient and almost let it come to you rather than try to chase it,” McIlroy said.
There will be plenty of players chasing on Sunday, but realistically, based on the number of potential winners more so than the actual score, the final round will very much be a shootout between a half-dozen players.