The PGA Championship concludes on Sunday at Southern Hills. GolfChannel.com writers weigh in with their predictions.
Who wins the 104th PGA?
Rex Hoggard: Justin Thomas. Consistency requires we stay with JT since he was our pick to start the week, but he will need a monsoon of help if he’s going to win his second major. Thomas, who will start the final round seven shots back, will need to match Saturday’s round of the day (65) and have front-runner Mito Pereira struggle, to have any chance. But we’re saying there’s a chance.
Ryan Lavner: Matt Fitzpatrick. No one in the top 6 has won a major, but Fitz is the most battle-tested as a seven-time winner in Europe; when he’s had the chance, he usually closes the deal. From a strokes-gained perspective, he’s been tops on Tour this season. It makes the most sense.
Colby Powell: Will Zalatoris. After a tough Saturday that saw the Wake Forest product start out 4 over through seven holes, Zalatoris steadied himself with a 1-under 34 on the back nine to remain in contention. All seven major championships at Southern Hills have been won by a player that had at least a share of the 36-hole lead. Zalatoris will make it a perfect 8-for-8 Sunday in Tulsa.
Who makes a charge, but falls short?
Rex Hoggard: Cameron Young. The PGA Tour rookie will spot Pereira four shots and might not be ready for the Sunday pressure of a major, but he’s done everything but win this season and seems poised to remain in contention until the very end.
Ryan Lavner: Will Zalatoris. After four early bogeys Saturday, he seemed to self-correct mid-round to keep himself in the mix. His third round was his poor ball-striking day: just six fairways and 10 greens hit. Just like at the 2021 Masters, he has “nothing to lose” – and that’s dangerous.
Colby Powell: Rory McIlroy. We’ve seen this movie before. We know how it ends. No one plays his way out of contention on a Saturday at a major just to rebound with a round-of-the-day close quite like McIlroy. Don’t be surprised if he back-doors another top-5 tomorrow at Southern Hills.
Full-field scores from the PGA Championship
Who fades on Sunday?
Rex Hoggard: Mito Pereira. Playing in just his second major and for the first time on a Grand Slam weekend, the pressure will be immense and the Tour rookie will likely struggle. The talented Chilean will contend for other majors, but this might be a bit much for him.
Ryan Lavner: Mito Pereira. Sunday will be unlike anything Pereira has experienced in his career – and he hasn’t even really prepared himself this year for this moment, since he doesn’t have a top-10. Southern Hills might not have any blowup holes, but players can rack up bogeys in a hurry if they’re just a touch off.
Colby Powell: Seamus Power. What an incredible ride it’s been for Power, who had never played in a major championship prior to his T-27 finish at last month’s Masters. Tied for sixth and a manageable six back (only three back of second place), Power feels like a perfect candidate to succumb to the pressure of being in the hunt on Sunday of a major.
Where will Rory McIlroy finish?:
Rex Hoggard: With virtually no chance to win, the Northern Irishman will start the final round with nothing to lose, much like he did last month at the Masters. McIlroy started the final round at Augusta National eight shots back, closed with a 64 and finished second. A similar scenario seems likely at Southern Hills.
Ryan Lavner: T-5. His ball-striking wasn’t the problem – outside of a 25-footer on the 16th hole, he didn’t make a putt longer than 3 feet in the third round. Freed up and out of title contention, we should fully expect McIlroy to play nicely and secure another high finish.
Colby Powell: T-5. It’s his specialty. A remarkable final round to get everyone excited heading into the U.S. Open is coming, so we might as well sit back and enjoy.