The 16th Presidents Cup gets underway Thursday at Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 Course outside of Chicago.
The Americans have had a stronghold on this biennial team competition, winning 13 of the previous 15 editions while losing only once.
The Internationals have at least one edge, considering its captain, Geoff Ogvily, was part of the team that redesigned this course a few years ago.
Before its redesign, Medinah No. 3 was the prototypical PGA Tour venue – hit it far, find it, hit it close, make a putt. While there is no tournament data for the new layout, it’s reasonable to expect more of a premium to be placed on driving accuracy to set up the right angles into the green, short game and lag putting, as one notable new feature is more expansive putting surfaces. Recent rain has reportedly softened the course considerably, so perhaps angles will matter less if the greens remain receptive.
The U.S. has the advantage off the tee, with four players ranked in the top 11 in total driving this season. The top International in that category is Min Woo Lee, at No. 18.
The Internationals, however, do stack up well in strokes gained: approach with Si Woo Kim leading the PGA Tour this past season in that stat. Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa were Nos. 2-4, though Tom Kim, Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama were also top 25.
But where the Americans might have the biggest edge is on the greens, as they boast four players in the top 13 in strokes gained: putting, including No. 1 Jacob Bridgeman.
Recent form also goes to the home side, as Data Golf’s trend table features eight American team members among its top 10, with only Sungjae Im (eighth) on that list.
On paper, this is shaping up to be one of the more lopsided Presidents Cups, which will only amplify those wanting major tweaks to this competition to make it more competitive.
If the Internationals are to pull the upset, they will need their top players – both Kims, Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott – to lead the way, along with likely a rookie or two to overcome what is a sizable depth issue for the visitors. The U.S., meanwhile, has plenty of paths to more points. But who will earn them?
Here’s our ranking of who will be the most impactful players of this year’s Presidents Cup, and who won’t:
24. Nico Echavarria: It’s a minor miracle he found a place on this team considering he has just three top-25s since winning at PGA National in early March. He’s below average in length and on approach, so it’s very likely, with no previous experience, he plays just two sessions.
23. Nick Taylor: It’s surprising he hasn’t received a Presidents Cup nod until now, though he probably wishes he was in better form for his debut. He owns no finish better than T-25 since mid-May, as he’s especially struggled with the irons.
22. Ryan Fox: He’s failed to build on his Open Championship victory, and his inaccuracy with the driver – plus blazing fast pace – might keep him from playing foursomes.
21. Corey Conners: It was a down year, particularly with the irons, as Conners finished 41st in strokes gained: approach. Combine that with a terrible 2-7 record, including 0-3 in fourballs, and Conners is risky pick to earn points. My prediction is for the first time ever, Conners plays fewer than four sessions.
20. Cameron Young: Went 1-2-1 in his only previous Presidents Cup, in 2022, and enters this week struggling with the irons and putter. He finished T-37 or worse in three of his final four starts. While he could reunite with Morikawa in foursomes, he will likely have a short leash with so many options at Brandt Snedeker’s disposal.
19. Jacob Bridgeman: He was probably off the team until a solo ninth at the BMW, which he followed with a T-4 at East Lake. Considering the depth and talent of the U.S. squad, Bridgeman will likely be a three-session guy unless he has a strong first day.
18. Ryo Hisatsune: Makes his debut on heels of T-12 at BMW. He’s strong with the irons, and many will want to see the all-Japanese pairing of he and Matsuyama. If he can hitch his wagon to the stalwart, he may get a point or two out of it.
MONTREAL, QUEBEC - SEPTEMBER 26: Adam Scott of Australia and the International Team lines up a putt on the 16th green ahead of Min Woo Lee of Australia during Thursday’s Four-ball matches on day one of the 2024 Presidents Cup at The Royal Montreal Golf Club on September 26, 2024 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
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17. Min Woo Lee: Medinah should fit him better than most of the internationals. He’s long, chips it well and makes tons of birdies. That said, he played just two sessions in his debut two years ago (0-1-1) and might not crack the foursomes rotation again. His T-4 at East Lake snapped a run of three events finishing T-47 or worse.
16. Wyndham Clark: Won three times this year behind much improved putting and approach play, and while he went 1-2-1 in Montreal, he didn’t exactly have the best partners. He might not be needed in foursomes, as he sprays it off the tee more than what is ideal, but his birdie rate (second behind Scheffler) will get him the nod in fourballs; it just remains to be seen with whom.
15. Christiaan Bezuidenhout: This is his third appearance, and he’s been a pleasant surprise so far in this competition (3-1-1). He must play more, considering he’s one of the best putters and chippers on the team. His form isn’t amazing, but three finishes of T-21 or better in his last six starts isn’t terrible either.
MONTREAL, QC - SEPTEMBER 29: Team USA golfer Collin Morikawa celebrates with the Presidents Cup trophy after the US won the 2024 Presidents Cup at The Royal Montreal Golf Club on September 29, 2024 at The Royal Montreal Golf Club in Montreal, QC (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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14. Sam Burns: Fell victim to a rough week from Scheffler in 2022, but Burns bounced back to go 3-0-1 in Montreal. He seems to be a secondary foursomes option, which limits his points upside, but he’s among the best putters on either team, and his three top-7s on major venues this year show he can ball-strike properly on elite tests as well.
13. Chris Gotterup: He’s second-best in the field in strokes gained: off the tee, and though he has a propensity to be a bit wild, I still give him the edge over the rookies, Clark, Burns and perhaps even Young in terms of being able to contribute in both team formats. To me, Bridgeman is an intriguing foursomes partner, while Clark makes the most sense in fourballs.
12. Jackson Koivun: Much will be expected of the young star, though like Bridgeman, there could be limited opportunity as a rookie. The promising news for Koivun is that Thomas needs a new partner, and Koivun seems like a great fit. As Thomas goes, so does Koivun in this scenario.
11. Justin Thomas: He’s never not played all five sessions in three previous appearances, compiling an impressive 10-3-2 record in the process. While he posted only two top-10s this year and failed to make it to East Lake, he was fairly consistent with just one missed cut (in his return from injury at Bay Hill) and a slew of top-25s (nine in his last dozen starts). He won the 2019 BMW here, and despite the significant changes, the revamp arguably transformed No. 3 into a more favorable course for Thomas, who led the PGA Tour in strokes gained: around the green this year. It’s worth noting, however, that he’s played 12 team sessions in this event, though zero with current teammates. Don’t be surprised if Koivun becomes his new partner.
10. Adam Scott: He’s trending nicely with four straight top-16s coming into this event, and his 23 career points (20-28-6) have him third all-time, first among internationals. He’s also gone five sessions in three straight Presidents Cups. Will that continue? The Matsuyama experiment looks to be over, and among Scott’s 18 partners, Lee is the only one aside from Matsuyama on this team. But he probably still plays five times out of necessity unless one of the rookies breaks out.
9. Russell Henley: Being Scheffler’s partner of choice boosts Henley’s stock considerably. But Henley finished the season strong with a T-4 at East Lake, one of four top-12s in his last six starts. Even if he won’t play all five sessions, his 3-1 record from two years ago seems repeatable.
8. Sungjae Im: He’s heating up with five top-15s in his last six starts of the season. That stretch has seen much improved iron play, and the short game and putting are among the best on either side. He’s gone 3-6-1 since his 3-1-1 debut in 2019 while pairing with seven different partners. Ranking 99th in birdie average isn’t great, but he’s still better than several teammates, and if he performs well the first two days, it may be hard for Geoff Ogilvy to sit him.
7. Patrick Cantlay: Has been one of the best approach players on the planet this summer, and his T-8, T-12, runner-up stretch before the Tour Championship (T-21) locked up his fourth Presidents Cup appearance. He’s played mostly with Schauffele, with whom he shares a 10-4 overall record in all formats, but he teamed with Burns to go 2-0 in fourballs two years ago.
MONTREAL, QUEBEC - SEPTEMBER 28: Tom Kim of the International Team celebrates with teammate Si Woo Kim after a birdie on the 14th hole during Four-Ball matches on day three of the 2024 Presidents Cup at The Royal Montreal Golf Club on September 28, 2024 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Keyur Khamar/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)
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6. Tom Kim: Yet to have a winning record in two Presidents Cup starts (3-5-1 overall), but he’s showed great form since winning the Scottish Open and should reunite with Si Woo Kim, the International team’s top player, perhaps for all four team sessions.
5. Xander Schauffele: It’s hard to argue he’s still not one of the stars of the U.S. team. His ball-striking has been trending very nicely, even if he tailed off in the playoffs, culminating with a T-14 at the Tour Championship. The one area of concern is he’s played 11 team sessions in his Presidents Cup career, nine with Cantlay and two with Tony Finau. If they struggle (Schauffele is 68th in birdie average, second-worst on U.S. team), perhaps both get sat a session, though Schauffele has sat just once in three appearances (10-4).
4. Hideki Matsuyama: This will be his seventh Presidents Cup, and he’s played five sessions in three of the previous six appearances, including each of the past two. He and Im appear to be a lock to team in foursomes, though there is still a question whom Matsuyama will play with in fourballs. He’s a great fit for this golf course, particularly considering he’s the best chipper in this field and can pair that with what could be an absurdly good ball-striking week.
3. Si Woo Kim: He was the best approach player on the PGA Tour this year and ranked fourth in birdie average, the only international player ranked better than 25th. He’s going to be leaned on – and likely alongside Tom Kim; the Internationals found something on that Saturday in Montreal, where the two Kims went 1-1 and generated a much-needed spark.
2. Collin Morikawa: Had it not been for a springtime back injury, Morikawa might’ve had more to show for this year. Still, he posted seven top-7s, including his Pebble win, and advanced to the Tour Championship. The iron play will need to be better than it was at East Lake if Morikawa wants to repeat his 4-1 performance from Montreal. If it is, he will likely go all five sessions as he’s perhaps the most interchangeable partner on the U.S. team. He’s also third in birdie average, which makes him a fourball threat, likely alongside Scheffler for one of the sessions.
1. Scottie Scheffler: He bounced back from his disappointing Presidents Cup debut at Quail Hollow to go 3-2 in Montreal. There’s little doubt the world No. 1 will go all five sessions again. He ranked eighth or better in each of the four major strokes-gained categories this year. With regular partner Henley in good form, too, expect at least 2.5 team points from Scheffler.
