Last year was one of our better years in terms of prognosticating.
Three of the top 10 players we tabbed as breakout players ended up winning on the PGA Tour – Karl Vilips, Aldrich Potgieter and William Mouw. Johnny Keefer finished as the Korn Ferry Tour’s top player, while Christo Lamprecht and Kensei Hirata also earned their PGA Tour cards. Josele Ballester joined LIV after graduating last summer and later won the Asian Tour’s Saudi International.
Now, it’s time to predict 2026’s breakouts.
Here’s a reminder of the criteria:
- Yet to crack top 100 in Official World Golf Ranking
- Yet to win on PGA Tour, DP World Tour or LIV Golf
- 25 years old or younger
And now, the top 10 biggest potential breakout players for this year:
10. Ben James
Age: 22
OWGR rank: 1,421 (still amateur)
Main tour: NCAA golf
Why it will be him: He’s the best senior in college golf by a considerable margin and should finish the season as the top-ranked player in PGA Tour University, which will provide him ample runway to show off his ball-striking at the highest level.
Why it won’t be him: He doesn’t have as much professional experience as, say, as Jackson Koivun, so there may be some growing pains early. Dating to the 2024 U.S. Open, James has missed five of seven cuts on the PGA Tour with a best finish of T-33 at the Valero Texas Open. The putter is usually the issue, so something to keep an eye on.
9. Gordon Sargent
Age: 22
OWGR rank: 945
Main tour: PGA Tour
Why it will be him: Consider this more of a gut feeling, as Sargent has yet to turn in a performance indicative of a guy on the other end of a lengthy slump. But he’s got one more full season of PGA Tour status, and the talent and firepower hiding somewhere under that hood are too great to ignore. If he finds that spark again, Sargent can not only contend but win on the PGA Tour.
Why it won’t be him: Not even the top-ranked Sargent in pro golf; that would be Billy Tom, no relation. Gordon slumped mightily his last year at Vanderbilt, as his driver went wild and his confidence tanked as a result. He missed six of 11 cuts after turning pro last summer with a best finish of T-24 at the opposite-field Isco Championship.
8. Nick Gabrelcik
Age: 23
OWGR rank: 432
Main tour: Korn Ferry Tour
Why it will be him: Made a big improvement on the KFT last season, finishing No. 54 in points while posting a runner-up among three top-10s. Proved in college he knows how to win; time to do it at the next level.
Why it won’t be him: Statistically, there’s nothing that jumps off the page as a huge strength. He wasn’t top 50 on the KFT in total driving, greens hit, scrambling or putting average. He’ll need something to lean on if he wants to make a run at the top 20 in KFT points this year.
7. Cole Sherwood
Age: 23
OWGR rank: 394
Main tour: Korn Ferry Tour
Why it will be him: Great putter with some length who has the temperament of a PGA Tour veteran. He figured things out in his second season on the KFT, finishing second and third in a three-event span before ending No. 41 in points.
Why it won’t be him: Can be streaky with the MCs as he had five straight toward the end of last season to seriously hurt his chances of cracking the top 20.
6. Barend Botha
Age: 24
OWGR rank: 198
Main tour: Korn Ferry Tour
Why it will be him: A raw talent out of Toledo via South Africa, Botha just makes a different sound when he strikes the ball. He performs well with his back against the wall, winning Americas Q-School two summers ago to avoid losing his visa, then went back-to-back on that tour down the stretch to lock up his KFT card. He finished runner-up at the KFT Championship last season, nearly pulling off another hail mary that would’ve seen him graduate to the PGA Tour.
Why it won’t be him: He only made 13 of 25 cuts last year, so the game is still very much feast or famine.
5. Adrien Dumont de Chassart
Age: 25
OWGR rank: 157
Main tour: PGA Tour
Why it will be him: He’s headed back to the PGA Tour after losing his card two years ago. But even though he made only 12 of 27 cuts in 2024, he also nearly won Bermuda, tying for third there. He possesses an amazing short game and putter, and perhaps his encore on the big tour will have him settle in and show off the game that he displayed at Illinois and in two seasons on the KFT.
Why it won’t be him: Shockingly, he ranked outside the top 150 in all four strokes-gained categories two seasons ago. There is some scar tissue that will need to be worked through.
4. Jackson Koivun
Age: 20
OWGR rank: 178 (still amateur)
Main tour: NCAA golf
Why it will be him: Arguably the best prospect since Ludvig Åberg. An elite putter and wedger who really only struggles around the greens. He’s gotten stronger in three years at Auburn, and after posting four straight top-11s last season on the PGA Tour, he’s ready to cash in his Accelerated card this summer following his junior season.
Why it won’t be him: He could decide to stay for his senior year, and we’ve also seen how hard a transition it is (i.e. Sargent, Luke Clanton and Nick Dunlap; he’ll take Dunlap’s two PGA Tour wins, though).
3. David Ford
Age: 23
OWGR rank: 509
Main tour: PGA Tour
Why it will be him: As he showed as a rookie, he drives it so beautifully; he would’ve ranked third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee, though he only logged 27 rounds, which wasn’t enough to qualify. He’s operated with little fanfare relative to peers like Clanton and Dunlap, but his T-3 in Utah proves he’s capable of winning out here.
Why it won’t be him: Battled some back and hip injuries in college, so health is always something to watch with Ford. He also didn’t putt nearly good enough last season, and that was a big reason why he missed nine of 13 cuts.
2. Blades Brown
Age: 18
OWGR rank: 482
Main tour: Korn Ferry Tour
Why it will be him: He made his pro debut at 17 years old at the American Express, but he quickly pivoted to the KFT after tying for second at the Veritex Bank Championship. He ended up No. 68 in points to clinch his full KFT card, so he’ll have a full-time job on that tour this year as he looks to finish in the top 20. He’s got the game – no glaring weaknesses, birdie machine – and the confidence to be the KFT points winner in 2026, too.
Why it won’t be him: Sometimes prone to the big round, and he’s still a teenager.
1. Wenyi Ding
Age: 21
OWGR rank: 168
Main tour: DP World Tour
Why it will be him: Nearly won the Aussie PGA a few weeks ago, which followed a third-place finish on the Asian Tour a couple months before that. Ding is tall and powerful with great hands and doesn’t miss a ton of cuts; he had just four MCs on the DPWT last season.
Why it won’t be him: Despite having been pro for over a year now, he’s still young. But that’s about it; one of the safest bets to win on the DPWT in 2026.