Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have only overlapped at a select few events outside of majors in 2026, and the pair have opened each one of those tournaments as the respective favorites to win.
The PGA Tour’s annual playoff opener stop in in Memphis is no different, with Scheffler and McIlroy entering the FedEx St. Jude Championship as the only players with single digit odds attached to their names.
Despite an apparent chasm between the two in the FedExCup standings, oddsmakers are holding the line when it comes to forecasting who will make it to the winner’s circle at TPC Southwind: It’s Scheffler, then it’s McIlroy. And then, it’s everyone else.
Let’s take a look before the action tees off in the Volunteer State.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship favorites (odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 11)
- Scottie Scheffler +445
- Rory McIlroy+950
- Xander Schauffele+1900
- Tommy Fleetwood+1950
- Sam Burns+2000
- Matt Fitzpatrick+2100
- Cameron Young+2100
- Ludvig Aberg+2300
- Collin Morikawa+2600
- Chris Gotterup+3000
- Patrick Cantlay+3100
- Si Woo Kim+3300
- Hideki Matsuyama+3300
- Wyndham Clark+3700
- Robert MacIntyre+3900
- Russell Henley (+4000)
- Justin Thomas (+4100)
- Jackson Koivun (+4100)
- Viktor Hovland (+4100)
- Min Woo Lee (+4700)
- Justin Rose (+4800)
Who will win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?
First thing that stood out list the top 21 names (went deep to include 2025 champion Justin Rose) was that Jackson Koivun — who just squeaked into the postseason — is listed at the same odds as Viktor Hovland.
If you’re grading it based on majors, the Norwegian gets a ‘F’ for 2026 — a season that begun with a promising T-18 at Augusta and was promptly eroded by three MCs. But that’s a completely limited view of a player who otherwise has been borderline top-grade material this year. Most recently, standing toe-to-toe with Scheffler at the Travelers and winning the signature event.
Listing the 2024 runner-up at the same price as Koivun doesn’t make much sense at all, and screams recency bias. We’ll gladly take the better player — the more rested player, too — at the same number as the 21-year-old phenom who hasn’t been off since leaving college. And yes, we realize this is not a head to head bet. We like Hovland to win the whole she-bang this weekend.
FedEx St. Jude Championship longshot winner
The first name that caught our eye scrolling much more down the list of favorites at Memphis this week was Alex Noren, who is coming off a T-7 finish at the Wyndham Championship.
But unlike in the outright winner section, we’re going to buck going with our gut and handing out a Scandinavian player. Rather, we’ll stick with an American South native and handout 2026 Genesis Invitation winner Jacob Bridgeman at +8400.
The 26-year-old Clemson product finished T-17 here a year ago and has finished T-30 in his last three events, carrying in a 19-for-20 made cuts streak into the St. Jude. And to boot: Bridgeman is No. 1 on the tour in shots gained putting. Can you say, cha-ching?
First round leader prediction: St. Jude Championship
We’ll give out two here for fun: Michael Thorbjornsen at +4400 and Keith Mitchell +5200.
Thorbjornsen is coming off his first career win at the Rocket Classic less than two weeks ago, and has proved consistently efficient off the tee. And whenever he’s been challenged, he’s scramble like a madman (seventh on tour) to avoid serious trouble. He’s someone we looked at a T-10 play but ultimately decided to go with here since he’s basically avoided anything more than 70 on Thursday since the early spring.
Mitchell doesn’t have any notable finishes here (T-43, T-31 and T-8 in three starts) that would lend itself to believe a bogey-free scoring explosion is coming on Thursday. But, he did just go low to open the Wyndham (65); and, historically, has been known to be a fast starter. We’ll take a flier at Mitchell as the number seems right going against peers like Jordan Spieth and Kristoffer Reitan.
Best bet parlay for 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship
Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Henley. Throw a lasso around all three in the T-20 market (ties included) and bring it to the counter. What does the good clerk say price that up as? +325?! Sold!
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