Joel Dahmen said the quiet part out loud.
“No one’s beating him this week,” said Dahmen, who sits in solo second, at 15 under, through three rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open.
Great playing by Dahmen, who is playing this year with conditional status. The only problem? He’s six shots back of Justin Rose, whose 4-under 68 Saturday pushed him to 21 under, three strokes better than the previous 54-hole record at this tournament.
The 45-year-old Rose has struck his irons like Zeus so far this week at Torrey Pines. The past two days on the more penal South Course, Rose has gained 3.147 and 3.697 strokes on approach, respectively (to compare, Scottie Scheffler led the PGA Tour last season with a 1.291 average). He began his third round by hitting approach shots inside of 9 feet on five of his first six par-4s.
Rose took advantage with four birdies in his first seven holes, an opening stretch capped by arguably the shot of the tournament to date, a 159-yard, held-off 9-iron from the first cut, over some tree branches and to 5 feet to a treacherous, back-right pin.
“At that point, it’s Justin’s week,” Dahmen said.
Added Rose: “I probably wasn’t trying to be that aggressive.”
Three bogeys on Rose’s back nine and a putter that lost over a stroke Saturday have kept this thing from getting completely out of hand.
“Yeah, you walk off like thinking maybe it could have been lower, you know,” Rose said. “You never want to say that after a 68 at Torrey or, you know, obviously being in the position that I’m in, but yeah, I played really, really well today. Like I thought that was the round of the week from tee to green anyway.”
No player in PGA Tour history has ever squandered a 54-hole lead of seven shots or more, but several guys have lost six-shot leads. One of those names was Dustin Johnson at the 2017 WGC-HSBC Champions, where it was Rose who was the beneficiary in brutal weather conditions, picking up one of what is now a dozen PGA Tour wins (Rose also won the 2019 Farmers).
Dahmen and Co. – the next closest challengers, Si Woo Kim and Ryo Hisatsune, are eight behind – will need to the wind to blow much like that day in Shanghai. Dahmen, though, isn’t holding his breath.
“If Justin makes his tee time and continues to play this way, he’s going to win the golf tournament,” Dahmen said. “He’s just playing too well. So, maybe he will not set his alarm correctly or something might happen that way.”
Rose, of course, is more than experienced enough to know better.
“There’s never going to be any complacency,” Rose said. “You know, I think there’s always enough respect for the game of golf in the back of your mind that you’ve got to do everything right tomorrow.”