It’s the eve of The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, and there’s plenty to discuss, both on and off the golf course.
Our panel of experts answer the most pressing questions, including who will win and what was to be made of PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp’s state-of-the-tour address, ahead of the Tour’s flagship event:
Biggest takeaway from Brian Rolapp’s press conference?
RYAN LAVNER: That the PGA Tour finally seems to be putting fans at the forefront. For too long the Tour’s seemingly sole mission was to provide playing opportunities for its members. But no successful business caters to the rank-and-file, with a bloated and oversaturated model that runs out of juice by the summer. Rolapp’s vision, if ultimately executed by the policy board, introduces elements that fans have largely been asking for: a bigger start, a revamped summer, bigger markets, more volatility and consequence and meaning to each tournament. Much is to be sorted out in the coming months, but if you’re a fan of the PGA Tour product, you have to be encouraged by what you heard on Wednesday.
REX HOGGARD: That the new chief executive has wandered to this particular mountain honestly. The Tour is in solid shape right now, but it’s a CEO’s job to make sure that health is sustainable and, in Rolapp’s view, that long-term health requires dramatic change. It’s also worth noting that Rolapp was talking to the players, not the press, during his Wednesday address on the state of the Tour. His own membership will be the most critical of change this dramatic.
BRENTLEY ROMINE: For those who read this proposal last year, you’ll know that I love much of what Rolapp revealed in sharing those six themes for the Tour’s competitive future. The Tour needs a truncated calendar for the elites that’s easier to follow, but it also can’t just slash tournaments, so creating another tour between the 20-something big events and the Korn Ferry Tour would be a smart move. The more critical aspect, in my opinion, is how the Tour does promotion and relegation. This can be done at the end of seasons, but the better option is to create a rolling ranking similar to the ATP ranking in pro tennis, that rewards players playing the best at that particular moment. This makes it easy to rise and fall in the Tour’s competitive ladder. It’s just important that the Tour gets the math right. One final note is a bit of reading the tea leaves, but Rolapp was noncommittal to East Lake as the host of the Tour Championship, which makes it seem like rumors of Tiger’s event at Riviera becoming the new playoff finale have some legs. That, of course, would push East Lake to a regular-season stop, probably earlier in the year when the weather is better.
Expectations for Rory McIlroy this week?
LAVNER: Significantly lowered. He wasn’t a full-go on the practice range on Wednesday, but his hope is that his back will continue to loosen up and improve – similar to how his 2023 Tour Championship unfolded, when he was restricted in the opening round but felt like a new player by the end. That he’s even attempting to play is a good sign, plus the fact that the issue is muscular and he can’t sustain any additional damage. But this course, and this punishing setup, demands ball-striking precision. It’s hard to imagine, with his compromised body, that he’ll be able to produce the necessary shots to seriously contend.
HOGGARD: An ailing back and limited preparation is no way to prepare for one of golf’s most grueling tests, but if anyone can rebound with some degree of expectation it’s McIlroy. He’s also the defending champion at TPC Sawgrass, and it’s worth noting that he was tied for ninth through two rounds when he withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week.
ROMINE: If healthy, there’s no doubt the Tour’s leader in strokes gained: tee-to-green and a two-time Players champ can contend. Word is the back isn’t a huge issue, though I would’ve liked to seen him play at least one practice round this week. The start may be rusty, but I believe we’ll see McIlroy find his way to a top-20 finish by Sunday evening, maybe better, though some early weather and an ensuing cold front may produce some long days and conditions unkind to sore backs.
Who wins the 52nd Players Championship?
LAVNER: Collin Morikawa. Though his record at TPC Sawgrass leaves much to be desired, his recent form does not. After ending his winless drought at Pebble Beach with his typically sublime ball-striking, he’s followed it up with consecutive top-7s in stern tests against top fields. He’s back.
HOGGARD: Collin Morikawa. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and at seventh on Tour in strokes gained: approach, his game is a perfect fit for TPC Sawgrass, where he picked up more than 11 shots on the field in stroke gained: tee-to-green last year. He also posted his best statistical putting week of the year at Bay Hill, which is a good tune-up for the Stadium Course.
ROMINE: Si Woo Kim. He fired off four straight finishes of T-11 or better to start the year, cooled a touch at Pebble and Riv, then got back on track with a T-13 last week at Bay Hill. He’s second on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, second in strokes gained: approach and first in proximity. He’s only missed the cut once in nine previous Players starts, when he withdrew after an opening 76, and aside from his 2017 win, he’s got two other top-10s and a slew of rounds in the 60s. This is the best version of Si Woo right now, and TPC Sawgrass typically rewards guys on top of their games.
Who/what else do you have an eye on this week?
LAVNER: Ludvig Aberg’s iron play has been trending in the right direction after a quiet last three-quarters of the 2025 season. Xander Schauffele’s all-around game is a far cry from his two-major performance in 2024, but he still managed to summon his best stuff in the biggest events last year. And past champion Si Woo Kim has been one of the game’s best ball-strikers this season – to the point that his coach, Chris Como, recently told him that no one has ever swung the club better. With seven top-15s in his last nine starts, he’s ready to win here again.
HOGGARD: Scottie Scheffler. He seemed to push past his Thursday blues with an opening 70 at Bay Hill but struggled on the greens the next three rounds. He’s a two-time winner at TPC Sawgrass but finished 20th at the Tour’s flagship event last year, his second-worst showing of a Player of the Year campaign. He could win by five shots or burn his way to another middling finish – don’t blink.
ROMINE: Coincidentally, there are two other guys nursing back issues who I’m bullish on – Jake Knapp and Austin Smotherman. But I’ll throw out a healthier name, and that’s Joel Dahmen. He failed to keep his full card last season and is coming off a missed cut at API, but he’s also got two top-10s this season and is hitting the ball great – first in driving accuracy, 11th in proximity and 20th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Plus, the band is getting back together this week, as Dahmen reunites with old caddie Geno Bonnalie.