For whatever the Charles Schwab Challenge lacks in star power, it makes up for with a plethora of gambling questions that both fans and bettors are denied typically when there’s a pre-tournament runaway favorite creating a lop-sided board or the Scottie vs. Rory narrative taking too much of the center frame.
Who’s better, Justin Thomas or Ludvig Åberg? J.J. Spaun or Hideki Matsuyama? It’s just easier to focus on a field like the Charles Schwab when some of the more constant names on Tour are not there to all but guarantee themselves top-10 spots on the leaderboard Sunday afternoon.
Let’s take a look at what the sportsbooks think of the field at Colonial this week, which includes seven top 20-ranked players, including defending champion Ben Griffin.
Charles Schwab Challenge 2026 odds (as of May 26, courtesy of DraftKings)
- Ludvig Åberg +990
- Russell Henley +1950
- Robert MacIntyre +2000
- Rickie Fowler +2400
- Ben Griffin +2500
- Justin Thomas +2600
- Akshay Bhatia +2900
- Hideki Matsuyama +3100
- Keegan Bradley +3200
- J.J. Spaun +3200
- Keith Mitchell +3300
- Harry Hall +3400
- Alex Smalley +3500
- Pierceson Coody +3900
- Gary Woodland +4200
- Michael Thorbjornsen +4300
- Sungjae Im +4400
- Bud Cauley +4500
- Ryo Hisatsune +4500
- Sahith Theegala +5000
Who will win at Colonial this weekend?
Åberg has been electric this spring compared to how he looked in California to start the season, but he’s hard to rely on for a full 72 holes, especially as a favorite with odds that are anything less than 14-to-1. Last week, we went high with Si Woo Kim, only to see that ticket burn late at TPC Craig Ranch.
We’ll aim for a name more in the middle of the list this week and give out the 54-hole leader at Aronimink, Alex Smalley at +3500. In case you missed it on the broadcast, this Duke alum has made 13 of 14 cuts this year, eight of which have seen him finish T-21 or better. Sounds like a natural fit in another field, right? Nope, think he’s due and the time to strike has never been better in terms of value.
Also, speaking of that “V” word, a pair of longshots that don’t sit right with us after how they played over the weekend: Tom Hoge (+15500) and A.J. Ewart (+19500).
First-round leader prediction: Charles Schwab Challenge
Harry Hall has been given out here already this year, so if he goes 0-for-2 then you’ll never hear his name mentioned in these great halls ever again. Ahem, back to the analysis. We like Hall here at +4800 with strong first-round finishes at his last two signature events leading up to Aronimink (where he missed the cut, full disclosure). Although, his first-round stats are actually down in 2026, it can’t be denied that Hall has shown up against strong fields this year and he’s from England! There’s something in the water across the pond these days: It’s producing winners.
We’ll give out a trio of longshot names to finish in the opening round top 10 or better because the numbers are too fun: Bud Cauley (+610), Kevin Streelman (+1425) and Camilo Villegas (+1650).
Charles Schwab Challenge best bet:
Justin Thomas’ wait at Aronimink seems destined to be rewarded by the golf gods. It’s just a matter of when. In case he comes up on the wrong end again here this week, it will not matter because we’re going the simple route: JT to finish T-10 (including ties) at +265. If you’re really looking to go down an ambitious avenue, you can tie that up with Russell Henley T-20 (including ties) and get a +600 payout.
And speaking of parlays and big payouts, if you tie together Max Greyserman-Ben Griffin-Rickie Fowler to top-20 (including ties) then you get a +1400 ticket.
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