Who will win the 108th PGA Championship? What will be the winning score at par-70 Aronimink Golf Club? GolfChannel.com writers weigh in.
Who wins the 2026 PGA Championship?
Ryan Laver: Scottie Scheffler. It might be an oversimplification, but his chances likely hinge on his Thursday performance – just twice this season has he began with a round in the 60s, and the slow burns have cost him a few chances at victory. He’s simply been starting too far back. This week, even without the extra gear of a Rory McIlroy or Cameron Young, he still is plenty long enough to carry doglegs and bunkers, and his wedge play and scrambling are top notch. It’s time.
Rex Hoggard: Scottie Scheffler. What’s wrong with Scheffler? The answer, of course, is nothing. Scheffler has finished runner-up in his last three starts, including last month’s Masters, and his sublime ball-striking and plodding nature are the perfect fit for Aronimink.
Brentley Romine: Well, I guess I can’t go Scottie Scheffler, which is fine. Give me the hottest player in the world right now: Cameron Young, who has done everything but win a major these past couple months. And if you want a winning pick who might not be widely tabbed, take Rickie Fowler. Someone close to Fowler texted me two Sundays ago that Fowler would win in his next three starts; he nearly did so last week, so he’s got two chances left.
What will be the winning score at Aronimink?
Lavner: 16 under. Some rain is expected to move into the area on Wednesday night/Thursday morning, which could take a bit of fire out of a course that was trending nicely in terms of firmness. With so many wedges into the greens there are ample opportunities for scoring. The target for many players will be around 4 under a day.
Hoggard: 17 under. Keegan Bradley won the last notable men’s event played at Aronimink, the 2018 BMW Championship, at 20 under. The PGA of America will attempt to tuck pins into the course’s sloping greens, but soft conditions and little rough will produce plenty of birdies.
Romine: 13 under. Nearly everyone is predicting that this golf course is about to be torn apart, but I’d caution such exaggerations. There are lots of birdies to be had, but on the flip side, miss your spot and two-putts and up-and-down pars will be tough.
Will anyone shoot 63 ... or lower?
Lavner: No, but a few players might approach it. The PGA can tuck some pins on these diabolical greens.
Hoggard: Yes. Five players, including McIlroy, posted rounds of 62 in ’18 at the BMW Championship. Even though Kerry Haigh, the PGA of America’s top set-up man, will attempt to hold back scoring with creative hole locations, there is only so much he can do on a course with soft fairways and less-than-stifling rough.
Romine: Someone will take advantage of rain early in the championship and probably post 63. But I just don’t see a ton of 65s and lower, especially over the weekend.
Who will leave most disappointed?
Lavner: Xander Schauffele. Thought he was rounding into form ahead of the PGA, but his performance last week at Quail Hollow raised an eyebrow. He was all over the map with his driver, and although the punishment won’t be as severe here with all of the trees removed, it’s still important to play from the fairway for distance control.
Hoggard: Jordan Spieth. This will mark Spieth’s 10th attempt to complete the career Grand Slam and he doesn’t seem to be getting any closer. His best finish at the PGA Championship in the last decade is a tie for third in 2019, when he was still six shots behind winner Brooks Koepka. And while he has shown flashes of form this season, Spieth seems destined to close out a decade of Grand Slam frustration this week.
Romine: Justin Thomas. Lots of people are up in arms after I ranked Thomas No. 53 in the field, but since winning the 2022 PGA, Thomas has missed seven of 15 cuts with just one top-30 finish at majors. Sure, the ball-striking is trending since he returned from back surgery, but the putter is still unpredictable and the recent major form is a huge red flag.
Who else are you keeping an eye on?
Lavner: Bryson DeChambeau. Could argue that he’s never been more of a question mark. Game-wise, he has been inconsistent, missing the cut at the Masters (on the heels of consecutive LIV wins) and then placing third a week ago in Virginia, but he also revealed that he’s been dealing with wrist and shoulder injuries, the latter of which was severe enough to seek an MRI exam earlier this year. And then there’s his headspace: Where is he mentally with his competitive future so uncertain? Typically, clear-headed players play their best golf. Bryson, of course, is not like most players and might thrive amid the chaos.
Hoggard: Rory McIlroy. Aronimink is the perfect fit for McIlroy – wide fairways softened by rain and patchy rough following a particularly cold winter in the Northeast. But he was rusty last week at Quail Hollow and his preparation for the PGA was limited by a blister on his toe.
Romine: Sudarshan Yellamaraju. The last player in the field before Jake Knapp’s WD got Tom Hoge in, but Yellamaraju is statistically the best long-iron player on Tour right now, ranks top 10 in total driving and was ready for the moment at The Players, which is the closest thing you can get to majors. This is his debut, so lack of experience will likely keep him from a top-10 finish, but he’s absolutely worth a top-20 bet. Thank me later.
