The Open Championship tees off in less than 48 hours at Royal Birkdale.
Scottie Scheffler’s quest for a repeat comes on the heels of his first missed cut in nearly four years. Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose and a slew of other English players face the pressure of becoming the first UK winner to hoist the claret jug since Nick Faldo’s triumph at Muirfield in 1992. All three of Faldo’s Open wins came in Scotland though which means England hasn’t seen a native son lift the jug on home soil since Tony Jacklin in 1969.
But we’re not here for history, we’re here for the golf betting. Let’s breakdown where the odds stand as of Tuesday, July 14.
Open Championship favorites (courtesy of DraftKings)
- Scottie Scheffler (+620)
- Rory McIlroy (+860)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1850)
- Jon Rahm (+1850)
- Xander Schauffele (+2500)
- Chris Gotterup (+3000)
- Cameron Young (+3100)
- Ludvig Åberg (+3300)
- Viktor Hovland (+3300)
- Collin Morikawa (+3400)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+3600)
- Robert MacIntryre (+3600)
- Justin Rose (+3900)
- Wyndham Clark (+4100)
- Si Woo Kim (+4300)
- Sam Burns (+4700)
- Russell Henley (+5100)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+5300)
- Justin Thomas (+5300)
Open Championship winner prediction
Scheffler has gone from +500 a dozen days ago to +590 over the weekend to his current +620 line. So what does it all mean? The Open hasn’t had a back-to-back winner since Harrington in 2008 — the longest stretch of the four majors, and Scheffler’s somewhat swelling number is reflective of that as well as the missed cut at the Renaissance Club. Bottom line is we’re passing and waiting for something a little more favorable on the live betting menu, given the world’s No. 1 propensity for slower starts in tournaments this year.
While Scheffler has gained some value, bettors have flocked toward Fleetwood and Rose. Fleetwood, having grown up in the town of Southport, has drawn considerable action and bumped Jon Rahm as the third favorite. Rose is one of four players in the field who has played Birkdale the three previous times it hosted in 1998, 2008 and 2017. Both have attracted money for good reason but we’ll hold off on them, too.
Tyrrell Hatton fits the narrative of Englishmen looking to win the claret jug at home, and yet his number has remained flat near and around his current odds of +3600. That means there’s some form of value on the 34-year-old who was cut at Birkdale almost a decade ago. Perhaps that’s why there’s limited action, despite Hatton’s win in June over Rahm at LIV Golf Andalucia and his T-3 finish at Augusta.
Favorite longshot winner
Granted he hasn’t contended for the winner’s circle since a Sunday implosion in Phoenix earlier this year but the number +9200 next to the name Hideki Matsuyama just seems inconsistent. Matsuyama finished T-14 at Birkdale in 2017 and is coming off a T-16 in last year’s Open. If you have a make the cut parlay, by the way — the 2021 Masters winner is a nice anchor having made all 16 weekends this year.
Nicolai Hojgaard is also getting those exact some as Matsuyama. We’ll also recommend him as a worthy flier, and hope we’re not being duped by his amazing driving stats (fourth on the PGA Tour). And one more for the road: Eugenio Chacarra at +15500 is screaming with capital “V” value. Wish he had a better showing at the Scottish Open where he finished T-52 but he’s coming off a pair of DP World Tour wins in the month of June.
2026 Open Championship best bet
This one is almost too easy: Scottie Scheffler and Chris Gotterup to finish top 20 including ties. Those two parlayed are paying +200. Love the players, love the odds. Hard to build a case against either of them at this point in the year so we won’t. And doubly, we’re not going to stress out about the winner’s circle. We know what these guys are capable of doing on Sunday. The track record speaks for itself.
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