The week before the U.S. Open isn’t just a tune-up, but instead another national championship: The PGA Tour heads north to Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open.
Rory McIlroy is back in the field after skipping the Memorial Tournament. Coupled with Memorial winner Scottie Scheffler’s absence, there’s a heavy favorite on the North Course of TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley.
Even betting expert Brad Thomas is bullish on McIlroy:
Rory McIlroy, to win: +450
Betting on an outright as short as Rory McIlroy is a tough pill to swallow. However, there’s good reason to shorten the outright betting card and fire a single bullet on the two-time Canadian Open champion.
Measuring 7,389 yards, with 32 acres of fairways, and only three holes with water in play, TPC Toronto is a long, defenseless par-70 golf course — one where McIlroy should have a massive advantage given his length off the tee and overall talent.
When looking at the last 12 rounds at long par 70s, McIlroy is first in the field in strokes gained: total by almost 0.5 strokes. He is first in the first in strokes gained: tee to green by nearly an entire stroke.
There’s a massive drop in win equity in the golfers after McIlroy. With Ludvig Åberg priced around +1400 and searching for his game, and Corey Conners having minimal win equity for being priced +2000, it’s clear to either back McIlroy or go much further down the board.
For me, in a field that is missing Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland, McIlroy’s price is excellent. That’s 10 of the top 15 players in the world who are absent from this event. For what it’s worth, McIlroy loves national opens. He has mentioned multiple times that they are “really important.” It’s probably the reason he’s won five of them just on the PGA Tour.
RBC Canadian Open odds (as of Wednesday, courtesy DraftKings):
- Rory McIlroy: +450
- Ludvig Åberg: +1400
- Corey Conners: +2000
- Shane Lowry: +2200
- Robert MacIntyre: +2800
- Taylor Pendrith: +2800
- Sam Burns: +2800
- Sungjae Im: +3500
- Luke Clanton: +4000
- Harry Hall: +4000
- Keith Mitchell: +4000
- Mackenzie Hughes: +4500
- Nick Taylor: +4500