The top 50 players in the FedExCup standings are getting familiar with Bellerive Country Club, site of this week’s BMW Championship.
Scottie Scheffler enters St. Louis as a significant favorite, coming in off a win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and looking to defend his BMW crown from Caves Valley Golf Club last year.
Rory McIlroy didn’t enjoy his time in Memphis as much, finishing 66th at TPC Southwind in a field that wound up with just 68 players after the withdrawals of Daniel Berger and Robert MacIntyre. Despite that performance, McIlroy has retained his spot behind Scheffler in the list of favorites.
Sam Burns opened as the third listed name but has been usurped by Xander Schauffle. Let’s grab hold of the live wire that is previewing golf tournament odds and dive in to look at the favorites for Bellerive before handing out some recommended plays.
2026 BMW Championship favorites (as of August 19, courtesy of DraftKings)
- Scottie Scheffler (+305)
- Rory McIlroy (+1300)
- Xander Schauffele (+1700)
- Ludvig Åberg (+1700)
- Sam Burns (+1750)
- Cameron Young (+1800)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2050)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+2400)
- Chris Gotterup (+2400)
- Si Woo Kim (+2700)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2700)
- Viktor Hovland (+2800)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2900)
- Wyndham Clark (+3000)
Justin Thomas (+3300)
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BMW Championship winner prediction
Viktor Hovland looked like an inspired pick for about a half-second last week in Tennessee, but fading Scheffler was eventually going to catch up with all of us. Lesson learned .... or has it been?
While the world’s top-ranked player is undeniably the “take your medicine” play, it’s more fun be fun to offer up something different than the obvious. And that’s why we’ll roll the dice with Hideki Matsuyama at +27000. He comes in with a T-7 finish or better in his last four tournaments, making the cut at all 21 tournaments and ranking 17th in scrambling — a skill he’ll undeniably need in Bellerive’s large, deep bunkers
Longshot to win at Bellerive
Kristoff Reitan and Gary Woodland are two fun ones, both listed at +8000. Those are to be played with a considerable lighter investment than Matsuyama, to be clear. And that’s because neither Reitan nor Woodland are coming into St. Louis anywhere close to the recent form of the 2021 Masters winner.
Both winners in 2026, Reitan and Woodland failed to finish inside the top 40 last week. Woodland’s T-7 at the U.S. Open and Reitan’s T-6 at the Memorial happened two months ago. But they each possess something that Hideki doesn’t that we’d like to see: Absurd range off the tee. Woodland and Reitan rank sixth and 24th in strokes gained: off the tee, respectively. We’d like to see how this factors Sunday if they’re in contention after 54 holes. The rub is they have not been in that position in quite some time.
First-round leader for BMW Championship
Maverick McNealy at +300 to finish top 10 at the end of the round is one that’ll be on our betting card ... but you knocked on the door looking for a winner. We’ll take a swing at Rickie Fowler at +4100 in this market, not because it’s any sort of good value (that has all but dried up here with 50 players in the field).
Instead, we’re taking Fowler because he’s extremely motivated (just like McNealy) to get off to the best start possible as he enters this week No. 30 in the playoffs. Not necessarily the best Thursday player this season, Fowler has been able to get it going early during his last two outings in Detroit and Memphis.
Best bet BMW Championship
Justin Thomas +200 to finish inside the top 10 (including ties) stood out immediately to us, and for good measure we’ll take a position on Kurt Kitayama in the same market at +260.
Like Woodland and Reitan, these are monsters off the tee. And like McNealy and Fowler, Thomas and Kitayama have everything to play for this week.
JT sits at No. 44 in the FedExCup standings so he needs a high finish to have a chance at extending his 2026 campaign, while Kitayama is on the inside of the top 30 at No. 28 — in prime position to lose his spot at East Lake depending on a variety of outcomes at Bellerive.
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