A flurry of late withdrawals sent the odds for the PGA Tour’s first event of the Florida swing into flux Monday. In the aftermath, Shane Lowry and Ryan Gerard took on the role of being the favorites for the Cognizant Classic.
Lowry and Gerard replace Genesis Invitational winner Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin and Adam Scott as new headliners in a tournament that was already lacking the the world’s top 20 players. And the duo makes sense, with Lowry having finished no worse than T-11 in his last four Cognizant starts.
Gerard, who gone five-for-five in made cuts so far this season, was fourth in 2023 and tied for 25th last year. Here’s who the oddsmakers expect to compete at the Champions Course this week other than Lowry and Gerard.
Cognizant Classic odds (as of Tuesday morning, courtesy of DraftKings):
- Shane Lowry (+1950)
- Ryan Gerard (+1950)
- Nicolai Hojgaard (+2150)
- Rasmus Hojgaard (+2200)
- Michael Thorbjornsen (+2450)
- Keith Mitchell (+2600)
- Brooks Koepka (+2800)
- Daniel Berger (+3400)
- Davis Thompson (+3500)
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+3700)
- Alex Smalley (+3800)
- Will Zalatoris (+3900)
- Thorbjorn Olesen (+4100)
- Aaron Rai (+4100)
Cognizant Classic winner prediction
The Hojgaard brothers line up third and fourth in odds after Monday’s slew of withdrawals, but there prices are not as attractive as the fifth player on the last — and that’s Michael Thorbjornsen, who at one point led at the WM Phoenix Open before eventually finishing T-3 with Scottie Scheffler. Not a bad name to be associated with if you’re the 24-year-old Stanford alum.
He comes into Florida off a week’s rest having not played at Riviera. Additionally, he finished inside the top 40 last year at Palm Beach Gardens, where he shot 4-under 68 on Sunday — good for his best round all tournament.
Best longshot to win at Palm Beaches
Stephen Jaegar jumped out at +6000, getting better odds than the likes of Thorbjorn Olesen (missed cut at the last two Cognizant Classics) and Daniel Berger (MC in 2024, T-25 last year).
Like Thorbjornsen, the 36-year-old German native comes in with rest and in good form. He finished T-5 at Torrey Pines, and finished with three top-10s in 2025 where he made 66% of tournament cuts (18 out of 27).
First-round leader prediction for the Cognizant Classic
Bettors could get lost in a sea of big numbers in this prop but if you look at early scoring average on Tour this season you find two very logical picks considering the long odds listed: Jordan Smith and Matthieu Pavon are each T-3 when playing first tee early and sit at +64=300 and at +11500, respectively.
At that price, both are as close to no-brainers as you can get when looking to bet this specific prop.
And if you’re looking for a third “for fun” bet, you can do a lot worse than Blades Brown at +8200. Exactly a month ago, the 18-year-old phenom shot a 12-under 60 in Round 2 at the American Express— good enough for the Nicklaus Tournament Course record.
DraftKings offers top-10s for the first round so while we are giving out picks and naming first-round wizards: S.H. Kim (+710), John Parry (+660) and Seamus Power (+670). All good prices for players who should be in contention for the leader after the first 18 holes.
Cognizant Classic best bet
Given the considerably water-downed field it’s surprising that Ryan Gerard is getting close to plus-money to finish inside the top 20 (ties included). He finished T-25 a year ago at this course, and his form has only improved since.
Gerard has been a cut machine this year going five-for-five in all of his tournaments played thus far. Impossible to ignore -106 to finish tied T-20 at the Cognizant given the fact he’s finished second at both the Sony and the American Express.
He’s started a bit slow over the last two weeks but impressive Fridays have helped boost him up the leaderboard. We’ll avoid the first-round market for Gerard but gladly take the price for him to be in contention — or better — on Sunday.
If you’re looking for a plus-money option, Alex Smalley at +152 is worthy of an investment. The 29-year-old Duke alum has made four out of five cuts in 2026 and finished T-19 at Pebble Beach. He comes in rested and posting just a single round over par in the 16 he’s played at made-cut events.
The exception of course being a woeful showing at Torrey Pines where a 4-over 76 on Friday showed him the door to a golf-free weekend in Southern California.