The Arnold Palmer Invitational welcomes a field full of the world’s top-ranked players. Will Scottie Scheffler find his second win of the 2026 Tour season or can Rory McIlroy kick start his run to the Masters with another signature-event title?
Don’t forget defending Bay Hill champ and world No. 7 Russell Henley. Another top storyline entering the week is the return of Justin Thomas, who’s returning from back surgery in November.
There are plenty of big names competing for the third signature event of the season, let’s see who the oddsmakers have as the favorite.
Arnold Palmer Invitational odds (as of Monday afternoon, courtesy of DraftKings):
- Scottie Scheffler (+300)
- Rory McIlroy (+960)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1750)
- Xander Schauffele (+2250)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+2600)
- Russell Henley (+3000)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
- Collin Morikawa (+3100)
- Si Woo Kim (+3200)
- Cameron Young (+3200)
- Robert MacIntyre (+3300)
- Patrick Cantlay (+3300)
- Ben Griffin (+3600)
- Harris English (+3700)
- Jake Knapp (+3800)
- Viktor Hovland (+3800)
Arnold Palmer Invitational winner prediction
Tommy Fleetwood looked excellent in the Tour’s two prior signature events at Riviera and Pebble Beach, and the top-10 machine gives us someone in contention on Sunday — at least in theory.
Scheffler, a two-time winner at Bay Hill, has been a slow start over last three tournaments, and expecting anything different seems like directly ignoring the Thursday broadcast (or livestream). He always has a chance, of course, but what fun is it playing 3-1 odds again?
Best longshot to win at Bay Hill Club
Hard to call Kurt Kitayama a longshot at +4400 odds but he’s not among the top 18 names listed in the above odds list. Like Fleetwood, Kitayama is in perfect form after finishing T-2 with Rory McIlroy at the Genesis Invitational.
Kitayama also enters Bay Hill with the knowledge that he can prevail at the course. The 2023 winner is one of just five past champions set to tee off this week (Scheffler, McIlroy, Henley and Day).
First-round leader prediction for API
Let’s go with a pair! It’s hard to go against Matthew Fitzpatrick in the first round this year, where he has cruised early at the WM Phoenix Open with a 65 and followed that up a week later at Pebble Beach where he posted 5-under 66 at the first signature event of the year. So at +3300, here’s the first of two names we’ll hand out here.
Russell Henley, the tournament’s defending champion, seems a bit chalky here +3700 but one has to remember the last opening round the Arnold Palmer Invitational was played under cold, breezy conditions with wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour. Henley didn’t necessarily overcome those posting a 72 on Thursday in 2025. However, that score was good enough to land him T-11 on the round. He was consistent from there on out, winning the tournament at 11 under par and posting a bogey-free round Friday — a rarity during that four-day stretch at Bay Hill.
Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 best bet
Bet you didn’t see another double here but generosity is sometimes a free-flowing spigot. T-20 plays for Bay Hill follow a pretty simple, straight-forward formula: Follow the 2026 winners.
Collin Morikawa at -108 seems affordable considering his solo second at Arnie’s place last year. Morikawa is back in form, winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Additionally, he posted a T-7 finish at Tiger’s event two weeks ago before taking the week off as the Tour moved west to east.
Morikawa is playing better golf right now than Cantlay and Schauffele — two names that surround him in this prop field. Oh, and one more nugget: The No. 5-ranked player in the world also posted a bogey-free Friday in 2025’s API like Henley.
And last but certainly not least, how could we not give out Jacob Bridgeman at +148 to finish T-20 after what he did at Rivieria? The number seems too good to be true. It’s in line with Justin Thomas, who hasn’t played yet this season. Also in the same group for this prop are Alex Noren, Jordan Spieth and J.J. Spaun. Bridgeman should be closer to even money based on his recent form. This is a capital “B” Bargain.