From third favorite to win to ... wait, is he still on the board?
That’s the trajectory Bryson DeChambeau’s futures market to win the 126th U.S. Open has taken over the last month as the two-time major champ has seen his odds plummet from +1000 on May 20 to +2900 the morning of Monday, June 15. Nobody else’s number has done quite that type of nose dive.
Collin Morikawa and Brooks Koepka have seen there respective odds dip slightly over that same time period but the reason for each is fairly obvious: Injury. Morikawa is patiently dealing with lingering back problems that have capsized his season. Koepka’s hand proved too bothersome for the five-time major winner to continue playing north of the border over the weekend.
So, what is driving DeChambeau’s value down? He’s won a U.S. Open in New York already and has finished no worse than 11th on LIV circuit over the last five events.
Here’s three reasons to consider before placing a wager on DeChambeau this week.
Cut at Augusta and Aronimink
DeChambeau’s number is dropping because the market is not betting him. But why are they not betting him? Well that’s straight forward: He’s yet to play a weekend round of golf at a major this year. He was cut at the Masters after posting a 76-74 and didn’t fare any better at Aronimink a month later. He carded a 76-71 and slammed the trunk on Friday after entering the tournament as the fifth favorite to win the 2026 PGA Championship.
To make matters worse, his fellow LIV competitors did not struggle to find their way into the leaderboard at each tournament. Tyrrell Hatton finished T-3 at Augusta, while Jon Rahm finished T-2 at the PGA.
Strength of LIV competition
DeChambeau ranks second in the LIV standings this year. No. 1 is Rahm, while Hatton sits fourth. The only other contender from LIV oddsmakers are giving a chance to win this week at Shinnecock is Joaquin Niemann. And you could have probably guessed but he’s third in LIV scoring in 2026.
Spark notes: DeChambeau’s finishes this season have been strong but he’s hardly playing against strong fields. The LIV events have also been played mostly favorable playing surfaces which Shinnecock has been known to rebuff quite fervently. While DeChambeau is certainly capable of winning a tournament with a score of even par, he’s been conditioned to be uncomfortable in such scenarios as a member of LIV.
Recent comments about future
Seems like a weaker factor when predicting winners on the course but if we’re doing a comprehensive diagnostics check of the DeChambeau odds it can’t be ignored that he recently stated his intention to continue his career on YouTube if unable to play for LIV in 2027 — or even finish the remainder of its current season.
Taking a wider lens to that comment and looking at the role DeChambeau is taking on for LIV in its post-PIF funding era, one can deduce that he is too distracted to contend at event such as this one.
