The PGA Championship has no shortage of storylines circling around Aronimink Golf Club this week as the year’s second major is less than 48 hours away from teeing off.
Oddsmakers have done what they’ve done for the last half-dozen major championships and listed Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as the favorites.
Scheffler is the reigning Wanamaker Trophy winner, while McIlroy is looking to win his third PGA Championship coming on the heels of his historic back-to-back wins at Augusta National.
After the world’s top-two ranked players, bettors might be surprised to see a notable gap between Jon Rahm and fellow LIV star Bryson DeChambeau. There’s also a punctuated separation between reigning Players champ Cameron Young and 2022 U.S. Open winner Matthew Fitzpatrick, who are arguably the hottest players on Tour this season.
Let’s take a look all the numbers and see where there’s value ahead of Thursday’s first round outside of Philadelphia.
PGA Championship odds (as of Tuesday, May 12, courtesy of DraftKings)
- Scottie Scheffler (+385)
- Rory McIlroy (+910)
- Jon Rahm (+1400)
- Cameron Young (+1650)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1850)
- Xander Schauffele (+1950)
- Ludvig Åberg (+2000)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2700)
- Brooks Koepka (+3700)
- Collin Morikawa (+3900)
- Justin Rose (+4700)
Some week-over-week notes on how this board his shifted: Rory has gained some value to his number — back from a 6-1 favorite after Scheffler — after a rare mediocre showing at Quail Hollow last weekend. Rahm has leapt over DeChambeau among others to become third in line behind his Ryder Cup teammate. Young, who was in front of Fitzpatrick at first look of the odds on May 4, has also jumped 2024 PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele. Fitzpatrick meanwhile has fallen under Ludvig Åberg.
And finally, before we run out of breath: Collin Morikawa has dropped from +2200 to his current +3900 line and Justin Thomas has gone from +2500 to off the favorites board entirely. He’s +4900 for those who are interested. Those were the most significant movers in either direction.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship?
OK, so now that the reporter’s notebook has been unloaded let’s pick a winner. It’s so easy to go again with Tommy Fleetwood as a top 10 play but they call it gambling for a reason. Fortune favors the bold, right? Indeed! Fleetwood is the play at +2700 as it just feels a shade long to have him as the eighth name in line given his five T-10 finishes this season. Additionally, he’s gone off at +2300 at Quail Hollow, +1800 at Harbour Town and +2300 at Augusta.
And if you hadn’t heard, Fleetwood is nine-for-nine in made cuts so there’s not a single blip on the radar to suggest there’s a trunk-shutting ceremony coming Friday afternoon.
PGA Championship longshot winner
Given the size of the field everybody not listed above is a longshot and that leaves roughly 92% of players to choose from for this section. Where could we possibly go wrong? Tyrrell Hatton at +6000 seems awfully mispriced coming off a T-3 finish at the Masters that was highlighted by 66s on both Friday and Sunday. Just really hard to ignore those especially given how little Hatton’s name is mentioned in all the LIV funding drama.
Over his past five starts (Masters included), by every measure this is an elite player — specifically in stokes gained: approach and greens in regulation. Of those other four events, all with LIV, Hatton has finished inside the top 17 in three of them.
If we were to caveat and say no LIV players here, then we’d be obliged to offer up Akshay Bhatia at +10000. The reigning Arnold Palmer winner might not be entirely a course fit here but the number is just too high for someone with seven top-25 finishes in 2026 and ranks fifth in overall putting on Tour.
Parlay for PGA Championship
Desperate to find a way to incorporate scorching red-hot Cameron Young in here and what better way than to build a T-20 parlay with his runner-up at The Players, Matt Fitzpatrick. That’ll pay a ridiculous +210. Not long enough for you? Toss in Si Woo Kim to make it a three-man parlay (all to finish T-20) and you get a +700 payout. We’ll take both, please!
PGA Championship best bet
Typically reserve this space for a name in the T-20 field but since we just dished out a trifecta it feels right to look elsewhere and diversify the card a bit and go to a prop they can only offer up at these type of events: First-time major winner.
- Yes (+115)
- No (-142)
Although the bettors are clearly pushing money toward the “No,” we’re going to offer up the “Yes” +115 as a best bet here. Perhaps too cute hoping there’ll be a storybook type ending on Sunday evening, but that’s the prediction.
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