Twenty two.
There will be a lot of numbers and stats given out ahead of the 126th U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills this week. Strokes gained putting, driving accuracy, greens in regulation percentage.
Every little detail matters to bettors but 22 trumps all. That’s how many players sit above reigning U.S. Open champ J.J. Spaun in the pre-tournament odds. If Spaun is this big of a longshot to defend his title, then what chance do gamblers stand in predicting a winner?
It’s not meant to discourage but rather illuminate just how deep this major field is — and how hard oddsmakers expect this course to play. There’s plenty of history backing that stance up, by the way.
But let’s steer clear of fear though and dive right in to see where the best players in the world stack up to one another before first-round action tees off in Long Island on Thursday.
2026 U.S. Open odds to win (as of June 15, courtesy of DraftKings)
- Scottie Scheffler (+455)
- Rory McIlroy (+950)
- Jon Rahm (+1025)
- Xander Schauffele (+1800)
- Cameron Young (+2000)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+2100)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2450)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2600)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+2900)
- Brooks Koepka (+3400)
- Collin Morikawa (+3500)
- Russell Henley (+3600)
- Wyndham Clark (+3800)
- Si Woo Kim (+3800)
- Sam Burns (+3800)
- Chris Gotterup +4500
- Justin Thomas +4500
- Tyrrell Hatton +4500
- Patrick Cantlay +4500
- Patrick Reed +4800
- Justin Rose +5200
- Viktor Hovland +5500
- J.J. Spaun +6000
Who will win the 126th U.S. Open?
Narratively, it’s setting up perfectly for world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to close out his career Grand Slam quest on his 30th birthday (which just so happens to fall on Sunday). Never trust a story that’s that well written at surface level. While Scottie’s line at Shinnecock is about a buck and a quarter more than it has been on average tournament Mondays, we have to use restraint here and know that that’s bait due to the course difficulty. And the fact we’ve got names like Rahm and DeChambeau crashing the party.
So, if we’re out on Scheffler, who are we in on this week to win? It certainly seems like 2026 is the year of Cameron Young. At +2000, the three-time Tour winner has a big enough number pre-tournament to gain our support as the recommended play. He’s playing just as good — if not better — than the three favorites this year and is getting priced at three to four times higher. Nonsense!
Before handing out a longshot, let’s quickly go one player down the list: Matt Fitzpatrick was considered at +2100 but is becoming an all-too-trendy pick after finishing second in Toronto on Sunday so we’ll avoid. The 2022 U.S. Open champ to finish T-10 at +180 is not a bad bet though.
Favorite longshot winner at Shinnecock Hills
Technically speaking, since he’s on the “short list” above, J.J. Spaun can’t be considered a true-blue long shot but at +6000 he’s just being discounted. That plain and that simple.
In our pre-tournament power rankings, Spaun comes in at No. 4. While that might seem like recency bias to his win at Oakmont, it’s far from it: Spaun has played some A-grade golf in 2026 and is poised for another breakthrough out on Long Island. Don’t love handing out picks on the basis of “disrespect” but we’ll file this recommendation under that tab and see how we do.
One more name in case you wanted someone with a possible triple-digit payout: Kristoffer Reitan at +12000 is being mispriced. See the aforementioned Golf Channel power rankings where the 2026 Truist champ sits No. 8. He just beat a signature event field at Quail Hollow, can’t think he’ll be intimidated walking in here.
2026 U.S. Open best bet
If it weren’t for a Brooks Koepka hand injury, our RBC Canada Open parlay would have hit. So that means back to the well we go. Instead of two names we’re going to be daring here and out a three-headed monster to finish T-20: Jon Rahm, Russell Henley, and Chris Gotterup.
Tie those three up and you get a nice, even +800 payout. Love when things come up that clean on first effort.
