The Texas two-step does its final dance this week at the Greg Norman-designed Oaks Course of TPC San Antonio where reigning champ Brian Harman looks to hold off a competitive field led by Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Åberg and Jordan Spieth.
A final berth to Augusta National is at stake for the winner (if not already in The Masters field), as well as a $1,764,000 cut of the $9.8-million purse and 500 points in the FedExCup standings.
Fleetwood enters as the tournament’s favorite but his line suggests oddsmakers believe the Valero Texas Open can be won by at least a dozen or plus players. Let’s take a look at how the winners breakdown.
Valero Texas Open odds (as of Wednesday morning, courtesy of DraftKings):
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1425)
- Ludvig Åberg (+1450)
- Russell Henley (+1750)
- Robert MacIntrye (+1800)
- Jordan Spieth (+1850)
- Si Woo Kim (+2150)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2250)
- Maverick McNealy (+2500)
- Sepp Straka (+2600)
- Rickie Fowler (+2600)
- Michael Thorbornsen (+2600)
- Keith Mitchell (+3400)
- Ryo Hisatsune (+3700)
- Alex Noren (+3900)
Valero Texas Open winner prediction
Don’t look too far down the board — made that mistake last week by picking the “bottom name” (see: Harry Hall) on the short list. Russell Henley finished fourth here in 2024 before skipping last year, and comes in tremendous form. Besides his cut at Riviera in February, Henley has finished in the top 20 of every tournament he’s played in this year (5). So why not feature him in that market?
If he did a name swap with Fleetwood or Åberg, he’d be the betting favorite. There’s just a shade too much of value at +1750 too ignore. His game is in just as good, if not better, shape than the two favorites. He’s definitely been more accurate off the tee and around the greens than the two names below him, too (MacIntrye and Spieth).
World No. 30 Si Woo Kim got a long hard look here but his last four finishes have shown some flaws in his game, especially his short game which is actually now losing him a stroke on the field.
Best longshot to win at the Oaks Course
Tony Finau has to be playing this course like there’s absolutely nothing to lose this week, and his number has already seen some action down from +7500 on Sunday night when the odds opened to +6900 midweek. The No. 107-ranked Finau has one chance of playing in the first major of 2026: Win in San Antonio.
After being cut in three of his first four events to start the year, Finau has made it to the weekend in five straight tournaments including three top 25 finishes so his form is good. The fact he’s priced the exact same as Will Zalatoris is alarming. One player is seemingly very health and the other is not.
While we’re looking for fun bets, let’s share four “extreme” longshot for the sake of generosity: Bud Cauley (+9400), Chad Ramey (+10500), Sami Välimäki (+14000), and Chandler Phillips (+50000). Cauley and Ramey finished T-5 here last year, while
Välimäki and Phillips were also able to secure placement inside the top 20.
First-round leader prediction for 2026 Valero
Maverick McNealy has been a name given as a winner and a top 20 play already this season, and we’re re-purposing him here since he was a) tremendous at this course last year b) presents more value to win in this prop field at +4200 than he is to win the whole thing and c) has an early start time slightly after 8 a.m. local. He very well could win, for what it’s worth, but at +2500 we’ll pass on Mav to go the distance and look for the quick payout Thursday night.
Three fun fliers to start out hot in San Antonio and finish top 10 after the first 18 holes, one based on recent performance and two on some first-round trends: Bronson Burgoon (+920), Lee Hodges (+840) and Doug Ghim (+840).
Valero Texas Open best
We’re going to go outside of the United States (finally!) and put a T-10 ticket on Sepp Straka at +240 and a T-20 bet on Jordan Smith at +215. Nothing too flashy but these present the most value of any numbers on the board, given they’re each paying out over two-to-one. Bettors don’t usually see such favorable offerings. Feels like barring some special performances at Pebble Beach and The Players Straka could be a two-time winner on Tour this year.
As for Smith, he was consistently scoring in the 60s last week and finished third at the Valspar two weeks ago. His recent stats indicate that he’s one of the best players on Tour off the tee and tee to green. No reason not to give him the greenlight.