It never ceases to amaze the different betting opportunities golf majors offer up.
Forget props like will there be a wire-to-wire winner or top European player, we’re talking golden nuggets like top left hander and whether or not a LIV golfer will lead after 18 holes (more on that in a little bit). A bettor could spend roughly two hours inside DraftKings app and still not sift through the entire menu for the 2026 PGA Championship.
We’ll focus the dial on the Round 1 bets being offered as otherwise we’d be destined to get lost like a group of teens driving without GPS — or a roadmap, if they happen to even know what one of those is. First order of business is tackling the favorites, then giving out a pick and finally handing out a best bet from the array of props available for the opening round at Aronomink.
First round leader odds for 2026 PGA Championship (as of May 12, courtesy of DraftKings)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
- Rory McIlroy (+1915)
- Jon Rahm (+2500)
- Cameron Young (+2700)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+2700)
- Ludvig Åberg (+2900)
- Xander Schauffele (+3500)
- Brooks Koepka (+3800)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+3900)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+4100)
- Justin Thomas (+4600)
- Collin Morikawa (+4600)
- Justin Rose (+4600)
PGA Championship first round leader prediction
The value is on Scheffler who’s notably more expensive to go ahead and win the whole thing 72 hours later; however, there’s the smallest of leans that the oddsmakers are showing here worth noting — and the one we’re handing out here as the 18-hole winner. And that’s Ludvig Åberg at +2900 being listed higher than Xander Schauffele.
Åberg is the better first-round scorer this season so there’s some reasonable stats to back up the pricing breakdown here but Schauffele is a major winner who sportsbooks respect as more of a threat to win so there’s some sort of disconnect. We’ll look to take advantage with the Swede who’s finished inside the top 10 five times this season after a rough start on the West Coast.
There’s something about the 63 he shot on Thursday at Harbour Town that we can’t get out of our heads.
Will the 2026 PGA Championship first round leader be from LIV?
- Yes (+550)
- No (-800)
Won’t be recommending the +550 after the Masters performance from the LIV players but that’s the only possible direction given the steam on the other side of this prop. More just showing that this is something that’s being offered up.
Other than Rahm and DeChambeau, the “Yes” ticket buys you Tyrrell Hatton, Joaquin Niemann, David Puig, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, Tom McKibbon, Elvis Smylie and Martin Kaymer as first round leader potentials.
No Spanish player has ever won the PGA Championship.
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 12, 2026
Jon Rahm would love to be the one to complete the “Spanish Grand Slam.” 🇪🇸🏆#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/Rgzav9zbIL
PGA Championship Round 1 best bets
There are three names that jumped out as more than two-to-one value plays in the End of Round 1- Top 20 (including ties) section: Tyrrell Hatton +200, Jordan Spieth +210, and Shane Lowry +235.
Hatton is coming off a string of great performances on LIV that have been overlooked, as well as a T-3 finish at Augusta. The number for him is just wrong here. He should be above (see: more expensively priced) than Morikawa, Koepka and Cantlay.
Spieth, in case you had not heard, is chasing the career Grand Slam. He’s also been an elevator ride all season, with some really high highs and some really low lows. So he’s perfect for the first round section of our betting card. Want to cheer for him but also want to have the option to bail out early.
Lowry has had a similar trajectory to Spieth in 2026 where he’s flirted with the top of a couple of leaderboards early only to fade like he did at the Masters where he posted an 80 on Sunday. He skipped on Quail Hollow last week which means he’s coming into Thursday rested.
