With Scottie Scheffler taking a breather after his 20th win on Tour, Xander Schauffele enters the third tournament of the PGA Tour season as the prohibitive favorite to win this week’s Farmers Insurance Open.
Schauffele might be attractive to bettors given the fact he’s a San Diego native with high familiarity with the course. But a closer look reveals that a tie for second in 2021 and a tie for ninth in 2024 are his only two top-10 finishes in nine starts at Torrey Pines.
Here’s an exact look at what oddsmakers think of Schauffele’s chances to breakthrough in front of the home crowd and who might be playing spoiler this weekend in San Diego.
Farmers Insurance Open odds (as of Wednesday, courtesy of DraftKings):
- Xander Schauffele (+1475)
- Ludvig Åberg (+1700)
- Cameron Young (+1950)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2350)
- Chris Gotterup (+2600)
- Si Woo Kim (+2700)
- J.J Spaun (+2800)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
- Maverick McNealy (+3200)
- Jason Day (+3300)
- Harris English (+2500)
- Taylor Pendrith (+3700)
- Keegan Bradley (+3700)
- Jake Knapp (+3700)
Farmers Insurance Open 2026 winner prediction
While it’s tempting to go with someone with ties to the area like Schauffele or Spaun or play the hot hand in Day (coming off a T-2 at the American Express last weekend), the pick is going to be the last name on the list: Jake Knapp.
The UCLA product is a player drawing a minimal amount of attention with the Brooks Koepka circus in town and on full display. Moreover, Knapp is coming off a T-11 at the Sony Open two weeks ago and enters the Farmers with a week of rest in between the tournaments.
He also finished T-3 at Torrey Pines in 2024 (his first year on tour). He also made the cut a year ago but failed to flourish during the weekend finishing 32nd overall.
Farmers Insurance Open 2026 best bet
With Justin Rose set to tee off at Torrey Pines’ South Course Thursday, the best bet recommendation for this week is Rose to finish top 20 at +200 (ties included).
The 2019 Farmers Insurance Open winner consistently competes well on the South Course, finishing T-6 and T-18 in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
This makes for the first-round leader prop bet at +3600 an attractive option, too, if you want to take the weekend out of the picture frame.
While Rose missed the cut last week at the American Express, it wasn’t for a lack of trying.
Toward the end of his third round at the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the No. 10-ranked player in the world attempted a few aggressive swings to keep up with the ultra low-scoring knowing he was facing a cutline double digits under par. He wound up with a costly double bogey on 17 and finished 1 over par on the round.
His 63 on the Nicklaus Tournament Course a day prior though was impressive, featuring nine birdies.
Rose enters this week with an extra day of rest and plenty of course history in his favor. Don’t overthink it, take the generous number.